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‘Abki baar, Balen sarkar’ resounds across Nepal as RSP seeks to oust Nepali Congress

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Two words – ‘parivartan’ and ‘vikas’ – are ringing through the air across Nepal. Also loud and clear is the tintinnabulation of the ‘ghanti’ (bell), the symbol of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which is headed for an astonishing victory, sweeping aside traditional parties like the Nepali Congress and CPN UML (Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist).It is election day, an election many thought was not feasible following the GenZ uprising last year, when properties of political parties across the country, especially those in Kathmandu, were burnt to the ground and several politicians barely escaped with their lives. Equally astonishing was the online election of interim PM Sushila Karki that followed — an attempt at diversifying the sources of power.The mood in the Pokhara/Gandaki district is both tranquil and festive. I have witnessed several elections in Nepal, but this time around it’s clear that voters, majority women, are determined to punish the old, traditional political parties like the Nepali Congress and United Communist Party. The graffiti near one of the booths along the Chinese built six-lane Pokhara Kathmandu highway reads ‘No to KP, Sher and Prachanda’ (referring to four time-CPNUML PM KP Oli, five-time NC PM Sher Bahadur Deuba and four-time Maoist PM, Prachanda).Outside the booth I asked Puran Gurung whom he voted for. Pat came the reply: “RSP must get a chance”. The Army in camouflage fatigues is patrolling the highway; the police, discredited during the GenZ protests, is guarding booths. The Army has refused to transport ballot boxes to counting centres tonight as sought by the Election Commission because the old parties feared mischief.Holi came one day earlier in Nepal, compared to India, which also turned out to be the last day of campaigning. Two candidates for Kaski Constituency No. 2, Nepali Congress’ Madhav Prasad Bastia and RSP’s Uttam Prasad Poudyel were playing Holi in my village. Although the area is a traditional NC stronghold, it was the RSP candidate who was greeted with the sound of bells and thundering applause.Today it seemed as if the tumultuous RSP wave catalysed by two iconic leaders who have joined it – rapper and former Kathmandu Mayor, Balen Shah, the chief crowd puller and RSP’s PM face, and party president Ravi Lamichhane — will bury the Nepali Congress. While RSP election slogan “abki baar Balen sarkar” hits bullseye, NC’s “abki baar sau paar”, according to locals, misses the target.By 5 pm, voting had ended; voter turnout in Kaski 1 declined from 62 per cent in 2022 to 60 per cent this time. Based on trends derived from campaigning programmes, most political commentators have estimated the following seat tallies: RSP: 90 to 110 (21); NC 60 to 65 (89); UML 50 to 55 (78) and NCP (regrouped Maoists) 20 to 25 (32). In Nepal’s mixed electoral system, individuals cast two votes – preferred candidate and preferred party.Balen Shah, a Madhesi by birth but Newar by education and culture, looks headed to become Prime Minister.

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