A surge in the prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) from April 1 is set to push airfares higher, as a sharp global crude spike and escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz tighten the screws on India’s aviation sector.The pressure is already visible on ticket pricing, and airlines say the next round of revisions will accelerate the pass-through to passengers.What is unfolding is not a routine fuel adjustment. Global jet fuel prices have more than doubled in four weeks, from $95.9 per barrel on February 20 to nearly $197 by March 20, driven by supply disruptions linked to the US-Israel and Iran war. Crude has risen over 50 per cent during the same period. For the airlines, where fuel accounts for 30-40 per cent of the cost, this is a direct hit on margins.The geopolitical risk has sharpened the uncertainty. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said countries facing jet fuel shortage should “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT” and “learn to fight for themselves”, underlining the fragility of supply lines and the possibility of prolonged disruption. “…countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the UK, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: number 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the US won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil,” Trump said on Truth Social.For the airlines, that risk is now being priced in. The Centre is attempting to limit the damage. Sources said the Ministry of Civil Aviation was working on a three-pronged plan, pushing states to cut VAT on the ATF, reviewing airport charges and examining policy options to absorb part of the shock. Aviation Minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu is expected to write to chief ministers, particularly in high-tax states, where VAT continues to keep the ATF prices elevated.But the room to absorb costs is shrinking. The airlines are facing a double hit. Alongside rising fuel bills, airspace restrictions across parts of West Asia are forcing longer flight paths, increasing fuel burn and crew costs. This is pushing up operating expenses even before the ATF revision kicks in.Aviation expert Mark Martin said the situation left little flexibility. “With the rise in world jet fuel prices expected to be over 20 per cent, it is extremely likely that Indian companies will raise the cost of jet fuel in proportion, and this has already happened with the increasing of fuel surcharges,” he said.Dr Vandana Singh of the Federation of Aviation Industry in India said fare increases were now a calibrated necessity. “Fuel accounts for nearly 35-40 per cent of the cost. Any sustained rise directly feeds into pricing, especially on high-demand routes. The challenge is to avoid a demand shock in a price-sensitive market,” she said.For passengers, the shift is already underway. “Fuel surcharges range from Rs 399 on domestic routes to Rs 3,000 on long-haul sectors, with base fares rising by Rs 425 to Rs 2,300 depending on distance,” the industry expert said, adding that even a 5-10 per cent increase in fares could soften demand, a risk airlines were weighing as they adjust pricing.Advocate Varun Singh, founder of Foresight Law Offices India, said the trend was no longer unfolding, it had arrived. “ATF prices are at record highs, and rising. What we are seeing is not a future risk but a present cost shock,” he said.“The April 1 revision will accelerate fare increases. The airlines will either raise prices or cut capacity to protect margins. Low-cost carriers will be under most pressure if volatility continues,” Varun added, calling for urgent VAT rationalisation, fuel hedging and tax review measures.