The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall this year over the country is expected to be below normal, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday.India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season — the long period average (1971-2020) of the seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm.Speaking at a press conference, Dr M Mohapatra, DGM of the IMD, said, “Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of +/- 5 per cent.”One of the reasons for below normal rainfall could be the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country.According to the IMD, climate models indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to emerge around the month of June.Currently, weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific.Also, climate models show that during the second half of the monsoon season, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions can develop.”Positive IOD leads to more rainfall. So, we expect that this will counter the impact of El Nino during the second half of the monsoon season,” Dr Mohapatra said.He also highlighted that compared to last year, the northern hemisphere snow cover area during the last three months (January to March) was slightly below normal.This winter and spring snow extent over the Northern Hemisphere has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country.The IMD gives the first forecast for monsoon season rainfall around mid-April and an updated forecast in the last week of May.