As the stakes for Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee rise in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, winning Uttor (North) Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad, the three Muslim-majority districts in the state where the community comprises over 50 per cent of the population, has become extremely important for her political survival.Mamata is seeking a fourth consecutive win against mounting resistance from the BJP, a party that has risen from the margins to become the main opposition in the state and now has ambitions to form the next government in West Bengal.In the past eight decades, the state has been ruled by the Congress, regional party-led coalitions and Left parties. But never by a right-wing party with a pronounced Hindu ideology. If the BJP manages to win and form the government in West Bengal, it will be a record of sorts.In this year’s Assembly election, a section of the voters has started looking at the BJP as a viable option against the TMC. Therefore, it has now become imperative for the ruling party to retain most of the seats in districts where it had performed well in the last Assembly election.Uttor Dinajpur and Malda, districts in North Bengal, have a Muslim population of over 51 and 52 per cent, while Murshidabad’s Muslim population, considered to be highest in the state, is over 66 per cent according to the 2011 census. But estimates say the Muslim population in both districts had increased in the last 14 years. In Uttor Dinajpur and Malda it has now risen to nearly 55 per cent of the total population and in Murshidabad it has reached 70 per cent.The three districts together have 43 Assembly seats — nine in Uttor Dinajpur, 12 in Malda and 22 in Murshidabad.In the 2021 Assembly election, Mamata had a clear domination in all three districts. Of the nine seats in Uttor Dinajpur, she had won seven and the BJP two, and of the 12 seats in Malda, the TMC had won eight seats and the remaining four were taken by the BJP. In Murshidabad, her win was more emphatic as of the 22 seats, the TMC had won 20 seats and the BJP had managed only two.Neither the Congress nor the CPM-led Left front could manage to win a single seat though both parties have some influence in the two districts.This year, however, the contest is tighter and there are a number of players in the fray, apart from the traditional parties. Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party, the All-India MIM of Asaduddin Owaisi and the Indian Secular Front are also among the contenders with the TMC, BJP, CPM and the Congress.The Congress and the Left parties have also become active in the field. While there is little chance of the BJP’s support among Hindus getting diluted, the pro-Muslim parties pool has got crowded. There is speculation that this can lead to Mamata’s vote share dropping among the Muslims.The presence of Congress’s Mausam Noor, niece of legendary Congress leader ABA Ghani Khan Chaudhury, in Malda and former Congress state president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in Murshidabad’s Berhampur are likely to win a few seats.In addition, Humayun Kabir, the ISF, AIMIM and the Left parties can also chip away crucial Muslim votes in key and closely fought contests. Moreover, as most political parties are gravitating towards the Muslim voters, the Hindus have started looking at the only party highlighting their concerns.In such a mixed and complex political pool, retaining key seats has become a very serious challenge for the TMC. The three districts — Uttor Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad — can be seen as a pointer for what is likely to happen in the rest of the state.