It is the kind of weather in which Chennai-vasis advise each other not to step out. On Thursday, though, in the humid and searing “feels like 46” heat, voters stepped out in numbers so large that by mid-day, political pundits were making fresh assessments of potential losers and beneficiaries of the huge turnouts in several constituencies.As polling for the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly ended at 6 pm, the Election Commission put out a provisional turnout of 82.24 per cent of the 5.73 crore eligible voters till 5 pm. That is the highest turnout in Tamil Nadu in recent memory. Fans of Vijay, the newest entrant to the Dravidian fray, and his Tamil Vetri Kazhagam, are attributing it to a “Vijay tsunami”.Apart from evident enthusiasm for Vijay among young voters, first-time voters, women, and Christian and Muslim voters, Tamil Nadu’s high turnout may also have another explanation: a shrunken voter base after the Special Intensive Revision.In the last three elections held pre-SIR, voter turnout was 78.29 per cent in 2011, near 74 per cent in 2016, and 73.1 per cent in 2021, when elections were held during the peak of the Delta wave of Covid. Over 73 lakh deceased or duplicate voters were weeded out ahead of this election.Still, both the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the main opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have reasons to be nervous. Vijay’s star power has been a major attraction in this election, introducing a newcomer into what was essentially a two-horse race.Vijay fans may not all be of voting age, but those who are repeated two mantras: “I want to vote for change this time” and “Why not give the newcomer a chance”. If the party succeeds in denting the two established Dravidian parties, or inflicts more serious damage, it would have done so without a proper second or third-rung leadership and without cadres. At many booths outside its few strongholds in Chennai, TVK was conspicuous by the absence of polling agents.In the days before the election, the view was that for MK Stalin to return to power, TVK must do well enough to split the anti-incumbency vote and hurt the AIADMK, but not so well that it impacts the DMK. The high turnout suggests that TVK may hurt the AIADMK more, but could also leave the DMK nursing some wounds, especially in urban and peri-urban belts of Chennai, Kanchipuram and Chengelpet, and in parts of western Tamil Nadu.For the DMK, securing a majority on its own, independent of its allies such as the Congress, VCK and DMDK, would be the best-case scenario. It would validate Stalin’s pitch of the election as Tamil Nadu versus Delhi and clear the path for his son Udhayanidhi’s succession. But the jury is out on that. A defeat, or even falling short of a majority, could trigger internal dissent.For the AIADMK, the election is a fight for survival, a decade after the passing of its charismatic leader Jayalalithaa. For Edappadi Palaniswami, whose leadership has seen multiple splits in the party, the immediate goal may be to retain its position as the principal opposition and not be displaced by the TVK.For the BJP, whose Tamil Nadu unit has oscillated between hope and despair, the best outcome would be a hung Assembly, keeping all options open, including alliances with parties it has criticised. A hung House could also benefit the Congress, whose engagement with Vijay before the elections had kept the DMK-led alliance on edge.What this election has also underlined is the normalisation of cash-for-votes. As polling approached, discussions around how much each party was offering became commonplace — from Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,000 per family member, the two Dravidian majors competed to influence voters.The transactions are no longer hidden, but often carried out openly. In some areas, candidates distributed gift coupons to avoid scrutiny by flying squads.Some voters even complained of not receiving money this time. Like the stock market, the price of a vote is not constant, it fluctuates depending on a candidate’s prospects. Investment in voters is higher where victory appears likely; otherwise, candidates prefer to hold back.