The political landscape of West Bengal is quite used to the spectre of cadres shifting loyalties with the change of power in the state.Once-dominant Congress faced the trend when the Left gained prominence in the state. Several Congress cadres defected to the Left which stayed in power from 1977 to 2011 in Bengal. Once the Left bastion was breached, several CPM cadres conveniently jumped ship to the TMC.Now with the TMC also displaced as the power centre by the BJP, supremo Mamata Banerjee is battling a potential rebellion, if not yet a split, within.What has transpired so farFour-time Trinamool Congress MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar was the first to strike a dissonant note in the TMC when she quit all party posts and later wrote to Lok Sabha speaker alleging Kalyan Banerjee, her TMC colleagues, used disparaging language for her. The complaint has been referred to the Lok Sabha ethics committee. After Ghosh, TMC spokesperson Santanu Sen quit as TMC spokesperson. TMC stalwart Sukhendu Shekhar Ray has also come out openly against Mamata.The Monday matterThings came to a head this Monday after Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari claimed that two TMC MLAs — Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha — have alleged forgery of their signatures on a letter to the Speaker of the Bengal Assembly endorsing Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay as Leader of Opposition. Around 20 signatures on the letter did not match. The letter was submitted after several TMC MLAs skipped a meeting on the LoP issue which Mamata had called at her residence on May 19.A CID probe into alleged forgery was ordered. Meanwhile, Mamata expelled Ritabrata and Saha amid reports that they were engaging with TMC MLAs and planning a coup.Is TMC headed for a split?Right now things are fluid but rumblings within are evident. Mamata’s move to expel two rebel MLAs quickly indicates she is anxious about the turn these issues could take. Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay has meanwhile claimed today that most MLAs were with Mamata. But the fact that 60 of 80 MLAs did not turn up at a meeting Mamata called is worrisome for the TMC which does not want to meet the same fate as Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in 2022 when Eknath Shinde had walked out with 40 MLAs and claimed his split faction to be the real Shiv Sena. He later won that claim before the Election Commission and bagged the original Shiv Sena election symbol too.How many TMC MLAs must split to become real partyOut of 80 MLAs, 53 (two-thirds) must break away from the TMC to claim a separate faction and stake claim as the real party. With many TMC MLAs known to be in touch with Suvendu, a former TMC stalwart, it remains to be seen what forces Mamata will marshal to fight the toughest battle of her life.