The southwest monsoon completed its advance across the country on Thursday, a day later than usual, with the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab coming under its cover. The monsoon normally covers the entire country by July 8.The monsoon arrived in the region on July 1 after a delay of a few days and had covered most parts of northwest India by July 3, except for parts of Fazilka and Muktsar districts in Punjab and Sirsa and Fatehabad districts in Haryana.Its advance had remained stalled along the Barmer-Jodhpur-Rajgarh-Bathinda axis for the past few days, even as many areas in Punjab and Haryana received varying amounts of rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a continuous wet spell over parts of the region until July 15.“Weak El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season,” the IMD said.The IMD said a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal adjoining the Odisha and West Bengal coasts, while another cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over Bihar and adjoining areas. These systems are likely to bring light rainfall over east and northeast India, as well as the Western Himalayan region, during the second week of July.According to the IMD, overall rainfall activity is likely to remain below normal across the country. Rainfall is expected to be below normal over the Indo-Gangetic plains, south India and the northeastern states.For July 11, the IMD has issued a moderate flash-flood risk warning for Uttarakhand’s Pauri Garhwal, Chamoli, Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Almora, Champawat and Nainital districts.The IMD had earlier predicted that July would be drier than usual, with rainfall across the country expected to be 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).One key reason for this deficit is the emergence of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to less rainfall in India.According to an IMD bulletin issued on July 9, the monsoon remained active over Haryana during the previous 24 hours but was weak over Punjab. Light to moderate rainfall occurred at most places in Haryana, while isolated areas experienced heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds. In Punjab, light to moderate rainfall was recorded at isolated places during the same period.The monsoon has returned to the surplus category in Haryana but remains below the long-period average (LPA) in Punjab. From July 1 to the morning of July 9, Haryana received 41.7 mm of rainfall against an LPA of 33.9 mm for the period, registering a surplus of 23 per cent.Punjab received 34.4 mm of rainfall during the same period against an LPA of 37.2 mm, resulting in a deficit of seven per cent. Seasonal rainfall since June 1, however, remains below normal, with Haryana recording a deficit of 19 per cent and Punjab 30 per cent.Barring six districts in northern and central Haryana, rainfall has remained above the LPA across the rest of the state. Faridabad, Gurugram and Panipat have recorded the highest rainfall since July 1, while Sirsa, which remains deficient by 99 per cent, along with Ambala and Bhiwani, has received the least rainfall.In Punjab, rainfall has been above the LPA in 10 districts and below the LPA in 12. Pathankot, Faridkot and Gurdaspur have received the highest rainfall so far, while Fazilka, Hoshiarpur and Kapurthala have recorded the lowest.