DED3P1 Hannover, Germany, Jockey laughs with dirt smeared face at the races Credit: Alamy
PUNTERS only have to look back a couple of months to see how rain and a going description change can decimate otherwise promising ante-post bets.
Aidan O’Brien’s Derby winner Christmas Day – a confirmed soft ground lover – was hammered in before winning the world’s most prestigious race.
OK so we may not see rain like this bizarre scene at York racecourse in November 2020… but it is set to pour down all the same Credit: Reuters
A slog in the mud at Epsom and Calandagan hasn’t looked the same since.
While Bay City Roller – who loves a slosh in the wet stuff – bolted up in the Coronation Cup.
York doesn’t look like it will turn quite like Epsom did, but it is still set to rain all night Wednesday and well into Thursday afternoon.
Here, I look at five horses all running on Thursday who won’t mind a bit of dig in the ground, which is now officially good from good to firm.
1 Crownbreaker 33-1
1.50 Lowther Stakes
Not many of the two-year-old fillies in this race have raced on anything softer than good.
But one who has experienced soft in the going description (officially good to soft) is £500,000 Amo horse Crown Breaker.
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She put in a big career best to win the Listed Prix Yacowlef at Deauville in June.
French racecourses always tend to downplay just how soft their ground is, so, at a price, she could handle some dig at York.
Especially as she is a half-sister to the brilliant sprinter Mill Stream, who won on soft and very soft in France.
2 Centigrade 11-2
3.00 Sir Kevin Sinfield 7 In 7 Grand Finale Handicap
Already found in the market, Ralph Beckett’s handicap debut was a heavy ground winner at Newbury back in October 2024.
He had this year’s Copper Horse handicap winner and leading Ebor fancy Daiquiri Bay in third that day.
Prior to that, on debut, he was second to subsequent Group 2 winner and consistent Group performer Jonquil.
Kept off the track until a comeback win at Southwell in June this year, he’s been given an opening mark of 102.
Given some of the opposition he has beaten and the ability to act on rain-softened ground, he looks a good bet.
3 Earth Shot 20-1
3.35 Yorkshire Oaks
“I’ve always said she wants soft ground.”
That’s what William Haggas said after seeing this Wathnan filly win the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot on… good to firm.
But if anything that just showed her versatility, not that her trainer was wrong.
Her debut came on soft when she was second to major potential and £1.7million buy My Ophelia, also trained by Haggas.
Minnie Hauk hasn’t been at her best this season but is another who would be OK with rain in this race, as is hot favourite Kalpana.
4 A La Prochaine 11-2
4.10 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes
Fourth in the Oaks on ground already turning into a quagmire, this Wathnan filly by legendary stallion Lope De Vega (winner on soft) might find the calmer waters of a Listed contest perfect to get her head in front.
She won over a mile on soft at Newbury on debut, where it pays to be a stayer down the long straight.
Interestingly, she is a half brother to the Willie Mullins-trained Mr Hollywood, who is a stayer with an Ebor entry who won twice on heavy early in his career.
Of course you can win on a certain type of ground without necessarily ‘acting’ on it all that well.
But the signs are promising for A La Prochaine and jockey James Doyle.
5 Caim SP
5.20 British EBF Fillies’ Handicap
First run in a handicap off a mark of 89 may well prove the deciding factor in how Ed Bethell’s three-year-old filly gets on over 7f.
But the expected ground would give hope of a big run.
Caim’s dam Prado was second – albeit beaten seven lengths – on soft ground at Goodwood’s Prestige Stakes in 2020.
On figures that was probably the second best run of her life.
Caim has finished first and second having raced on soft ground twice but bombed out on good to firm most recently.
A return to a softer surface could see her in a much better light.
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