The state’s demographic landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with data from successive Census indicating a steady decline in the growth rate of the Sikh population.The Census 2011 recorded approximately 2.08 crore Sikhs, accounting for 1.7% of India’s population. Hindus constituted 79.8% (approximately 96.63 crore), Muslims 14.2% (approximately 17.22 crore) and Christians 2.3% (approximately 2.78 crore).According to Census data, the Sikh population growth rate fell from 24.3% in 1991 to 18.2% in 2001 and further to 8.4% in 2011, marking a decline of nearly 16 percentage points over two decades.Expressing concern over it, Akal Takht officiating Jathedar Giani Kuldip Singh Gargaj appealed to Sikh couples to have three to four children. “The population of all communities has increased, but we have not been able to match that growth,” he had stated.Similar appeals were made in the past by Giani Gurbachan Singh and Giani Raghbir Singh, both former Akal Takht Jathedars, during their respective tenures.The decline is visible in Punjab as well where the share of Sikh population fell from 62.95% in 1991 to 59.9% in 2001 and further to 57.7% in 2011. During the same period, the share of Hindus rose from 34.46% in 1991 to 36.9% in 2001 and 38.5% in 2011.Dr Lakhvir Singh Gill, Principal, University College, Ghanaur, Patiala, said large-scale migration of Sikhs, particularly from the Jat Sikh farming community, to countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom has significantly contributed to the demographic shift.Dr Gill, who has extensively researched the demography and socio-political dynamics of the Sikhs, said although both Sikhs and Hindus emigrated over the decades, data showed that the Hindu population in the state went up. “That is because people from other states, most of whom happen to be Hindu, are migrating to Punjab,” he told The Tribune.According to renowned sociologist Dipankar Gupta, higher literacy levels among Sikhs, especially women, have led to a decline in the Sikh population. “The fact that crime against women is among the lowest in Punjab speaks volumes about their status. It indicates that women, being well aware and educated, are more assertive. This also contributes to low fertility rate among Sikhs, besides the much talked about migration to other countries,” said Gupta.Prof Kuldip Singh, former Head of the Department of Political Science, Guru Nanak Dev University (GNDU), Amritsar, believed in the “replacement theory” as well. “It is estimated that nearly one lakh Sikhs migrate abroad annually, while between 1.5 lakh and 2 lakh people from other states, notably Bihar, UP and Jharkhand, move into Punjab,” he said. The shrinking Sikh footprint, he said, would, over time, affect the community’s religious and political space.“The SGPC, the Akal Takht, the Chief Khalsa Diwan and other Sikh institutions derive strength from the size, cohesion and participation of the community. In democracy too, numbers translate into electoral strength. A declining Sikh youth base could weaken religious mobilisation and reduce community’s political participation,” said Prof Kuldip Singh.Dr Amarjit Singh, Dean, Faculty of Humanities and Religious Studies, GNDU, agreed and pointed to Punjab’s low fertility rate and broader health concerns.According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21), the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among Sikhs stood at 1.61 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. The figure has declined sharply from around 2.9 recorded during the NFHS-1 (1992-93). “The trend of people getting married late in life naturally shortens the time window for having children,” he said.