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Egregiously wrong: World Bank ED Mishra on row over GDP data

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World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra on Thursday backed India’s 7.8 per cent GDP growth estimate amid the controversy surrounding the latest GDP figures, saying high-frequency indicators such as vehicle sales, tax revenues and credit growth were consistent with the pace of economic expansion.“India’s pace of growth appropriately reflects what I believe to be unfudgeable indicators. Neither the government nor automakers have any incentive to manipulate the data they publish on tax collections or vehicle sales. Since these indicators are highly consistent with the reported growth, I am confident about the numbers,” he said.“I was shocked to see the ill-educated and egregiously wrong claims made by some that if the ‘original’ base of June-2025 quarter was used, growth in the June-2026 quarter would be much lower,” Mishra said.Mishra’s statement came amid a political row over the growth figures released by the government which were contested by former Finance Secretary SC Garg.In a post on X, he said the economy was benefiting from lower fiscal pressures and rising credit expansion, adding that the latest GDP data should prompt an upward revision of consensus trend-growth estimates to above 7 per cent.“That is, with neutral fiscal and monetary policy settings, the economy should still register growth of around 7.5 per cent,” he wrote, while rejecting claims that the revised GDP base had significantly inflated the latest growth figure.“The new series introduced in February cleaned up the data and significantly improved the methodology,” he said.Mishra cited personal vehicle deliveries, two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales, tax revenues, credit growth and construction activity as evidence that economic activity had strengthened following the June quarter.According to him, personal vehicle dispatches, including cars and SUVs, rose 35 per cent year-on-year in August, while two-wheeler exports increased by more than 20 per cent and commercial vehicle dispatches by over 40 per cent.Tax collections have also recorded strong growth, which, he said, is “as real as it gets”.Strong construction indicators, according to Mishra, point to a rise in investment activity. “Hopefully, there will now be fewer people asking why private-sector investment is weak, given the clear evidence of investment on the ground,” he said.However, Mishra noted that the economy still had some slack, as reflected in weak real wage growth. He said it could take several quarters of above-trend growth for that slack to be absorbed and for underlying inflationary pressures to re-emerge.

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