With the Southwest Monsoon expected to begin its withdrawal from western Rajasthan on September 19, the weather department has predicted a dry spell over Punjab and Haryana from September 20 onwards.Light to moderate rainfall is likely at isolated places on September 19, and the weather is likely to remain dry thereafter in the two states, according to a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on September 18.“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from some parts of western Rajasthan around September 19,” the bulletin said. This was the last part of the country to be covered by the Monsoon on July 9.A few days after the withdrawal from Rajasthan commences, the Monsoon is expected to retreat from the entire northwestern region. Last year, the Monsoon had retreated from the region by September 25.According to the IMD, the monsoon trough, a key rain-bearing weather feature, has become disorganised, while a western disturbance prevailing over Jammu and its neighbourhood has become less marked.A satellite image released by the IMD on September 18 shows the total absence of clouds over Punjab and Haryana, though some clouds are visible over northern and eastern parts of Himachal Pradesh, northern Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.Monsoon activity over Punjab and Haryana was “weak” over the past 24 hours, with light to moderate rain and gusty winds occurring at isolated places in both states. Day and night temperatures were normal.Rainfall during September has been below the long-period average (LPA) by 54 per cent in Punjab and 41 per cent in Haryana, while seasonal rainfall since June 1 has been below the LPA by 36 per cent in Punjab and 24 per cent in Haryana.From June 1 till the morning of September 18, Punjab received 267.8 mm of rain against the LPA of 415.9 mm for this period, according to IMD data. Correspondingly, Haryana received 313.9 mm against the LPA of 412.7 mm.During the season, only two districts in Punjab have received surplus rainfall. Rainfall was above normal by 39 per cent in Pathankot and 30 per cent in Gurdaspur. In the rest of the state, the deficiency ranged from 4 per cent to 70 per cent, with Kapurthala, Fatehgarh Sahib and Mansa being the three worst-hit districts.In Haryana, rainfall was above the LPA by 24 per cent in Palwal and 1 per cent in Gurugram. In other parts, the deficiency ranged from 1 per cent to 57 per cent, with Jind, Sirsa and Ambala receiving the least amount of rain.