As Cyclone Alfred closes in on Australia’s eastern coast, meteorologists are grappling with its unpredictable movement, unusually strong intensity, and potential for widespread destruction. Unlike most tropical cyclones that veer away from Australia’s coastline, Alfred has taken a rare westward turn, putting densely populated areas at risk.What’s making Cyclone Alfred unusual?1. A rare westward turn toward landMost cyclones in the Coral Sea move southeastward, following prevailing mid-latitude westerly winds that steer them away from land. However, Alfred has defied this norm. Initially drifting southward parallel to the Australian coastline, it took a sudden westward turn toward Queensland and New South Wales.Dr Liz Ritchie-Tyo, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Monash University, was quoted by the Independent as explaining, “This shift is due to Alfred’s interaction with a mid-latitude trough. Instead of weakening and drifting away, it has re-intensified into a hybrid system, sometimes even stronger than the original tropical cyclone.”2. Strength sustained further south than expectedTropical cyclones typically weaken as they move south due to cooler ocean temperatures and stronger wind shear, which disrupts their structure. However, Alfred has maintained its strength as a Category 2 system and could even brush close to Category 3 intensity before landfall.“The last time a severe tropical cyclone made landfall this far south was in the 1950s,” said Dr Tom Mortlock of Climate Analytics Asia-Pacific, as quoted by the Independent. “We’re seeing storms sustain their intensity much further south than before, and that’s alarming.”One key factor is ocean temperatures. The sea surface near Sydney is currently around 27°C—about 1°C above average. Warm waters above 26.5°C are essential for cyclone development, and Alfred is feeding off this energy.3. Intensification and unpredictabilityScientists have noted that Alfred formed alongside two other tropical systems in late February, a rare phenomenon in the South Pacific. While cyclones forming in clusters aren’t unheard of, Alfred’s ability to sustain itself and intensify over an extended period has raised eyebrows.“This is a storm that refuses to weaken,” said meteorologist Thomas Hinterdorfer. “The longer it stays over warm waters, the more energy it gains before landfall.”Why are forecasters concerned?1. Extreme rainfall and flooding risksCyclone Alfred is expected to bring up to 600mm of rain—enough to overwhelm rivers and trigger widespread flooding across Queensland and northern NSW. With Brisbane and Gold Coast in the storm’s path, authorities are bracing for a major flood event not seen since Cyclone Wanda in 1974.2. Coastal erosion and storm surgesWith high tides coinciding with Alfred’s landfall, coastal communities could see severe erosion and storm surges. The combination of heavy rainfall and strong onshore winds will push seawater inland, increasing flood risks.3. Slow movement could amplify damageThe cyclone is currently moving at just 14 km/h—slower than the average tropical cyclone speed of 15-20 km/h. Slower-moving storms tend to cause prolonged destruction, dumping heavy rainfall over the same area for an extended period.“When cyclones move slowly, they linger over land, causing greater wind damage and prolonged flooding,” said Hinterdorfer. “We saw this with Hurricane Harvey in the U.S., where slow movement led to record-breaking rainfall.”The bigger picture: Is climate change a factor?Scientists warn that climate change is altering cyclone behavior, making storms more intense, more frequent, and less predictable. Rising global temperatures are warming ocean waters, fueling stronger cyclones that reach further south than before.“Tropical cyclones used to weaken before reaching Brisbane. That’s no longer guaranteed,” said Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed of the University of Newcastle. “We need to start planning for a future where these types of storms become more common.”With Alfred set to make landfall within hours, authorities are urging residents to prepare for severe weather conditions that could rival the most destructive storms in Australia’s history.
Cyclone Alfred’s unusual path baffles experts: Why forecasters are concerned
