The new battle challenge of China-Pakistan collusion

On July 4, the Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Rahul R. Singh, confirmed an important facet of the China-Pakistan nexus that has been discussed successful the strategical assemblage since the four-day subject hostilities with Pakistan (Operation Sindoor, May 7-10).

Speaking publicly, helium said that China was an ever-present origin bolstering Pakistan’s subject efforts done unprecedented battlefield collusion during Operation Sindoor. Lt. Gen. Singh besides spoke of the subject assistance extended by Türkiye, but that was of a overmuch lesser bid of magnitude.

In the India-Pakistan subject confrontations of 1965 and 1971, and adjacent during the Kargil operations successful 1999, China was a inheritance player, offering diplomatic backing and token subject gestures connected Pakistan’s behalf, without engaging straight successful hostilities. This time, however, China’s posture was distinctly much layered and collusive, leveraging its robust defence-industrial base, blase intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, practised interoperability, and geostrategic assets to reenforce Pakistan’s warfare efforts without overtly crossing reddish lines. This represents a large progression successful China’s accepted strategy of gathering up Pakistan’s strategical and accepted capabilities done overt and covert assistance to antagonistic India and support it off-balance.

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Subtle but strategical diplomatic signalling

In the diplomatic arena, China refrained from condemning the Pahalgam violent onslaught (April 22) until a belated telephonic speech connected May 10 betwixt Foreign Minister Wang Yi and National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval. In fact, China’s authoritative responses mirrored Pakistan’s communicative — advocating a “quick and just investigation” of the Pahalgam onslaught and expressing “full understanding” of Islamabad’s “legitimate information concerns”. The May 7 onslaught by India connected violent targets was deemed “regrettable” by the Chinese Foreign Office spokesperson. China besides collaborated with Pakistan successful diluting the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) property statement, excising immoderate nonstop notation to The Resistance Front, the radical down the Pahalgam attack

Significantly, India avoided immoderate political-level interaction with China successful the discourse of Pahalgam and Operation Sindoor (until the NSA’s speech with Wang Yi), dissimilar with different UNSC members (excepting Pakistan), signalling India’s appraisal of China’s unhelpful stance.

The Chinese media played a precise progressive relation successful shaping perceptions. State-affiliated platforms amplified Pakistan’s propaganda, which included exaggerated claims astir the nonaccomplishment of Indian combatant aircraft. Social media commentators aligned with the Pakistan Army’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)-fuelled intelligence warfare efforts — this included celebrating the alleged occurrence of Chinese-origin subject platforms deployed by Pakistan successful its first-ever brushwood with precocious occidental limb platforms successful a combat situation.

This integer scenery underscored not lone China’s progressive informational enactment but besides its alignment with Pakistan’s strategical messaging. By omitting the discourse of the panic attack’s severity, Chinese reports sought to connote that India’s subject actions were disproportionate. A recurring taxable among Chinese experts was the interest that the situation could escalate into a atomic conflict, prompting calls for planetary diplomatic involution to forestall further escalation.

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Hardware, ISR and tactical integration

China’s subject collusion, however, went beyond diplomatic alignment and propaganda. The less-likely script of a “two-front war” — with China and Pakistan launching simultaneous subject operations against India — has distinctly metamorphosed into the much imminent situation of a “one-front reinforced war”, wherever a struggle with Pakistan tin present openly impact China.

For the archetypal time, precocious Chinese-origin systems were visibly employed by Pakistan successful a unrecorded operational environment. The Pakistan Air Force’s deployment of Chinese J-10C fighters equipped with PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles, alongside HQ-9 aerial defence systems, demonstrated enhanced capableness done operational integration honed implicit the years of associated exercises specified arsenic the Shaheen-series. This interoperability was not conscionable symbolic. It was translated into tactical advantages successful real-time combat.

Drones, cyber operations, and net-centric warfare elements employed by Pakistan showed unmistakable imprints of the “Chinese subject playbook”. As Lt. Gen. Singh has confirmed, Chinese ISR systems provided real-time data, situational awareness, and surveillance capabilities to the Pakistani forces. Even civilian assets specified arsenic the Chinese sportfishing fleet were reportedly leveraged to show Indian naval deployments, portion Pakistan’s Navy remained coastal-bound.

China’s BeiDou outer navigation strategy played a captious role, including successful rocket guidance for the PL-15, reaffirming the nonstop integration of Chinese systems into Pakistani battlefield operations. Reports besides bespeak the fusion of the Swedish Saab 2000 Erieye airborne aboriginal informing and power (AEW&C) level alongside Chinese systems to down Indian aircraft, reflecting a blase convergence of multi-origin platforms, galore of which are enabled oregon integrated by Chinese technologies.

This evolving concern compels respective conclusions. First, the important relation of Chinese hardware, ISR, and battlefield advisory inputs person radically analyzable India’s deterrence framework. China’s quality to supply real-time enactment without overt subject engagement allows it to play a agelong strategical game. It tin trial India’s reddish lines portion avoiding nonstop escalation.

Second, a “new normal” is emerging wherein India finds greater latitude for accepted operations against Pakistan contempt the atomic overhang. China and Pakistan are, successful parallel, constructing their ain “new normal” of battlefield coordination. This includes stepped-up defence procurements: Pakistan’s announcement connected June 6 of China offering it its fifth-generation J-35 stealth fighters, the KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft, and the HQ-19 ballistic rocket defence strategy reinforces its presumption arsenic the foremost recipient of Chinese frontline subject hardware.

Third, Operation Sindoor whitethorn person inadvertently served arsenic a “live-fire demonstration” for China’s defence industry, validating its platforms and collecting show information successful existent combat against occidental systems.

This occurrence offers China greater leverage successful planetary arms markets and incentivises continued grey-zone tactics, probing India’s thresholds without initiating unfastened hostilities.

Fourth, India present faces unrecorded borders with some China and Pakistan. Despite the October 2024 disengagement successful Eastern Ladakh, forces stay heavy deployed on the bluish frontier. Simultaneously, the ceasefire on the Line of Control and the planetary bound with Pakistan — restored successful 2021 — has efficaciously collapsed.

This dual-front deployment forces India to dispersed its resources: troops, ISR assets, logistical chains, and accepted platforms indispensable beryllium disposable simultaneously connected some flanks. The request is not conscionable for preparedness but for sustained deterrence.

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Preparing for the future

India is entering a play wherever sub-conventional struggle and accepted operations blur crossed a composite menace from China and Pakistan. This “one-front reinforced” situation demands strategical imagination, accepted build-up, organization coordination, and diplomatic clarity.

In airy of this altered reality, India indispensable reassess its diplomatic calibration vis-à-vis China. Beijing’s strategical enabling of Pakistan successful battlefield conditions indispensable transportation costs. If “terror and talks” cannot coexist successful India’s Pakistan policy, past strategical collusion by China with Pakistan cannot beryllium decoupled from its bilateral engagement with India.

India whitethorn request to awesome consequences, some done diplomatic messaging and strategical argumentation shifts.

An evident corollary to India’s “new normal” of expanded scope of punitive accepted operations beneath the atomic threshold is simply a important enlargement successful accepted capabilities. This includes web centric warfare, non-legacy platforms specified arsenic drones, and ISR capabilities to antagonistic Chinese assets. The diminution successful defence spending, from 17.1% of cardinal expenditure successful 2014-15 to 13% successful 2025-26, indispensable beryllium revisited if India is to conscionable the demands of an progressively analyzable battlespace.

India indispensable support a grade of unpredictability successful its effect to provocations from Pakistan, avoiding knee-jerk kinetic actions. If India predictably opts for punitive subject strike, it could autumn successful a trap that would beryllium exploited by Pakistan and China acting collusively. Instead, it indispensable besides research alternate forms of retaliatory actions. The abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty could beryllium 1 specified option, but determination are different levers disposable which tin beryllium deployed without publicity.

Battlefield collusion is nary longer a theoretical concern; it is simply a lived experience. Operation Sindoor should not lone service arsenic a acquisition successful tactical innovation but besides arsenic a wake-up telephone for rethinking India’s defence posture, unit modernisation, and strategical signalling. The sooner this world is integrated into India’s strategical planning, the amended prepared India volition beryllium for a aboriginal shaped not by isolated provocations but by a collusive China-Pakistan situation crossed a contested battlespace.

Ashok K. Kantha is simply a erstwhile Ambassador to China, present progressive with think-tanks