Ukraine requires a continuous and reliable supply of US weapons, ammunition, and essential military equipment to sustain its resistance against Russian aggression. US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine, escalating tensions between Washington and Kyiv just days after a heated Oval Office confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The move effectively halts the delivery of billions in US weaponry, leaving Ukraine uncertain about its ability to sustain its defense against Russia. The pause applies to all US military equipment not yet in Ukraine, including weapons in transit through Poland and those awaiting transport from US stockpiles. However, the full scope of affected weaponry remains unclear yet.Why it mattersThe suspension of aid leaves Ukraine in a vulnerable position at a crucial time in its war against Russia. The country relies heavily on US-supplied weapons, including air defense systems, missiles, and armored vehicles, to repel Russian forces. The move underscores a significant shift in US foreign policy, with Trump prioritizing peace negotiations over continued military assistance. It also signals broader skepticism within his administration about sustained American involvement in the conflict. European allies, already strained by their own defense limitations, may struggle to compensate for the loss of US support. The UK and EU are considering additional aid, but their production capacity and financial resources fall short of replacing American contributions. Domestically, the decision has reignited political debate, with critics arguing that Trump is abandoning Ukraine and emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin, while supporters praise him for reassessing the US’s role in the war.Trump’s decision dramatically escalates the breach between Washington and Kyiv, at a critical moment in the conflict. The most immediate beneficiary of the move is President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. If the suspension is lengthy, he can use the time to press for further territorial gains. And he may well decide to hold back from any negotiations at all, figuring that any prolonged dispute between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky will only strengthen his position, either on the battlefield or when cease-fire talks ever take place.An article in the New York TimesA death blow to Ukraine’s war effort?Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, the United States has provided $175 billion in military and financial assistance to Ukraine, making it by far Kyiv’s most important ally. This aid has included vital weaponry such as Patriot air-defense systems, long-range missiles, drones, and artillery shells—all crucial for Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances.With the US now halting its assistance, analysts warn that Ukraine’s military capability could rapidly decline. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNN that Ukraine could feel the effects within two to four months. “That’s why they don’t fall off a cliff immediately, but when your supplies get cut in half, it eventually shows up on the front lines,” Cancian said. “The result could be catastrophic.”The pause in aid threatens to derail Ukraine’s ability to maintain air defenses, artillery firepower, and logistics support. US intelligence-sharing, which has been instrumental in guiding Ukrainian strikes against Russian military targets, could also be affected. A depletion of air-defense missiles could leave Ukrainian cities vulnerable to Russian bombardment, potentially leading to large-scale civilian casualties and territorial losses.Can Europe fill the gap?In response to the crisis, European nations have pledged to increase their military support for Ukraine. The European Union is currently debating a €20 billion ($21 billion) military package, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a £1.6 billion ($2 billion) loan to supply more than 5,000 air-defense missiles to Kyiv.Meanwhile, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday presented a five-part plan to mobilise around 800 billion euros for Europe’s defence and provide “immediate” military support for Ukraine after Washington suspended aid.”A new era is upon us,” von der Leyen wrote in a letter to EU leaders ahead of a summit focused on strengthening support for Ukraine and Europe’s defences.”‘ReArm Europe’ could mobilise close to 800 billion euros of defence expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe,” she told reporters, highlighting a 150-billion-euro loan facility and measures to unlock large-scale defence investments.The timeline for making funds available remains unclear, as the proposals require approval from member states.”It can help finance or accelerate certain purchases,” said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations.”The results will be visible more likely in weeks or months rather than ‘immediately’ but it makes a difference, since that is when the American restrictions will start to bite.”However, Europe lacks the industrial capacity to fully replace US military aid. While European arms production has ramped up since the start of the war, the scale and speed of manufacturing cannot match America’s output. France and Germany have pledged additional military assistance, but logistical and bureaucratic hurdles mean that deliveries may take months or even years.European leaders are also pressing Trump to reconsider his decision before peace talks with Russia advance further. Starmer said that the UK, France, and other allies are forming a “coalition of the willing” to work on a ceasefire plan that would secure Ukraine’s future. However, European officials privately acknowledge that without Washington’s support, their ability to prevent a Russian victory is severely weakened.A calculated gamble?Trump’s decision to suspend military aid is widely seen as an attempt to pressure Ukraine into peace talks with Russia. However, critics argue that it amounts to abandoning Ukraine at a critical moment. Trump has made no commitment to supporting Ukraine’s long-term security, and his refusal to issue explicit guarantees has left Kyiv in an increasingly vulnerable position.Vice President JD Vance defended the administration’s stance, arguing that Ukraine should accept economic agreements—such as a minerals deal with US firms—in exchange for continued support. “If you want real security guarantees, the best way is to give Americans an economic stake in Ukraine’s future,” Vance said in a Fox News interview.Vice President JD Vance reveals the moment the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting ‘went off the rails’For Zelenskyy, the stakes could not be higher. If Ukraine loses US support and fails to secure a robust European military commitment, it may be forced into a disadvantageous ceasefire that cedes more territory to Russia. Such an outcome would likely be viewed as a victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose forces have already occupied roughly 20% of Ukraine’s land.Watch tense Oval Office argument between Zelensky, Trump and VanceWhat they are saying“The Ukrainians didn’t think we were serious,” a Trump administration official said. “We had to make a demonstration.”US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “By freezing military aid to Ukraine, President Trump has kicked the door wide open for Putin to escalate his violent aggression against innocent Ukrainians. The repercussions will undoubtedly be devastating.”Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee: “On the surface, this looks really bad. It looks like he is pushing us towards capitulation, meaning (accepting) Russia’s demands. To stop aid now means to help Putin.”British government spokesperson: “We remain absolutely committed to securing a lasting peace in Ukraine and are engaging with key allies in support of this effort. It is the right thing to do, and is in our interest to do so.”Benjamin Haddad, French junior minister for Europe: “Fundamentally, if you want peace, does a decision to suspend arms to Ukraine reinforce peace or does it make it more distant? It makes it more distant, because it only strengthens the hand of the aggressor on the ground, which is Russia.”Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, on X: Europe must “take full responsibility for our own security. This requires increased investment in defence. Ensuring our security also means intensifying our support for Ukraine. We cannot allow Russia’s aggressive policy, which threatens us all, to succeed.” “The era of relying on others to address fundamental international challenges on our behalf is over.”Polish deputy defence minister Cezary Tomczyk: Pausing US military aid for Ukraine is “bad news.”Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Pawel Wronski: “The pausing of aid is a very important decision, and the situation is very serious. (The US decision) was made without any information, or consultation, neither with NATO allies, nor with the Ramstein group, which is involved in supporting Ukraine in its fight.”Hungarian government spokesman: “The US president and the Hungarian government share the same stance: instead of continuing weapons shipments and the war, a ceasefire and peace talks are needed as soon as possible.”The view from MoscowKremlin officials have welcomed Trump’s decision, with Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling it “a shift in American policy that aligns with our vision of Ukraine’s future.” Russian forces have already stepped up attacks along the front lines, anticipating a reduction in Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.If the pause in US aid becomes a permanent policy, Russia could gain the upper hand in the war, potentially leading to a full-scale collapse of Ukraine’s defenses. A scenario in which Ukraine is forced into a dictated peace—one that favors Moscow’s territorial ambitions—now appears increasingly plausible.Is Ukraine doomed?Zelenskyy’s government has vowed to continue fighting with or without US support. “An agreement to end the war is still very, very far away, and no one has started all these steps yet. The peace that we foresee in the future must be just, honest, and most importantly, sustainable,” Zelenskyy said in London. But the reality is stark: without a steady flow of American weapons, Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances will be severely weakened. The country faces several possible outcomes:Increased reliance on European aid – If the EU and the UK can ramp up arms production quickly, they may partially offset the loss of US assistance. However, their current capabilities fall short of what Ukraine needs.Expert on Ukraine’s future after Trump-Zelenskyy meeting“I feel betrayed, but this feeling is not really deep for some reason. I was expecting something like that from Trump’s side,” an Ukrainian soldier fighting in Russia’s Kursk region told AP.“War is very pragmatic,” another Ukrainian soldier told AP. “If we have weapons, enough ammunition, infantry, armored vehicles and aviation — great. If not, then we’re done,” he said.While Ukraine is not immediately doomed by the pause in US aid, the longer the suspension lasts, the greater the risks become. Without American support, Ukraine’s military will face mounting challenges in defending its territory. European allies may step up, but they cannot fully replace the United States’ role in providing critical military resources.In the worst-case scenario, Russia could capitalize on Ukraine’s weakened state to push for further territorial gains, potentially forcing Kyiv into a humiliating peace deal. However, if Europe bolsters its military commitment and Ukraine can sustain its war effort through domestic production and strategic realignments, the country may yet endure.For now, Ukraine’s survival hangs in the balance—caught between the shifting tides of US politics and the brutal realities of war.(With inputs from agencies)
Trump freezes US military aid to Ukraine after clash with Zelenskyy: What’s next
