When the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) romped home with a thumping majority in the 2021 Assembly elections, it was attributed almost entirely to the ‘kits’ (grocery packages that reached every ration-buying household during the Covid months). But the LDF’s surge was also due to the support that it received from the Muslim voters, thanks to the strident anti-CAA stance taken by the CPM.However, it looks like a different story this time with clear signs of alienation of Muslim voters from the Left. Statistical indicators from recent local body polls and mid-campaign opinion surveys hint at the thinning of the Left’s margins in north Kerala, where Muslim votes have a decisive say in the poll outcome. In Kozhikode, a district where the LDF won 11 of the 13 seats in 2021, projections now suggest a potential drop to single digits.The UDF, anchored by a revitalised Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), appears to be consolidating its traditional base, which is a signal that the community is returning to its established leadership and familiar political position.Meanwhile, there is a strong perception among large sections of the Muslim population, cutting across intra-community divides, that the CPM is in a tie-up with the BJP for its survival.That might just be a myth, but there are times in politics when myths matter more than reality. The UDF’s campaign, which claims the LDF has fielded ‘soft’ candidates in the BJP strongholds like Palakkad to ensure a Left victory elsewhere, has gained traction.This suspicion is compounded by recent policy frictions. The LDF government’s handling of the Waqf Board reconstitution —specifically the inclusion of non-Muslim members following Central amendments — has been viewed by many as surrender rather than a confrontation with the Centre.Close proximity of the CPM, particularly CM Pinarayi Vijayan, to figures like the powerful Ezhava leader Vellappally Natesan has only compounded matters. Several of his recent utterances were termed anti-Muslim and neither the CPM nor the CM did anything to distance themselves from such statements. The result has been a visible trust deficit.Till the other day, the UDF also had its little cup of woe vis-à-vis the mainstream voters. That came when the Jamaat-e-Islami-led Welfare Party volunteered to support it. The CPM charge against the Congress was clinical and forceful, clearly to alienate secular and Christian voters from them.But the tide turned dramatically last week when the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), seen as an extremist fringe, offered tactical support to the LDF. The CPM is now finding it hard to explain away the turn of events, particularly to its own cadres, who still have not forgotten the murder of SFI activist Abhimany by SDPI activists in 2018.Senior leaders’ response to questions about SDPI support —that they saw no reason to say ‘no’ when some party or group volunteered to support them — has hardly helped to douse the fire.The reformist Mujahids are already rallied behind the UDF. One of two Sunni factions, led by EK Abubaker Musliyar, has traditionally been UDF-leaning. The rival AP Abubaker Musliyar faction, for long a pillar of support for the LDF, also appears to have decided that they must throw their lot with the UDF in the current election cycle.The CPM has not lost the Muslim vote entirely, but it has lost the protector aura that allowed it to breach Muslim bastions in north Kerala five years ago.In an election where every percentage point matters, even a 3-4 per cent shift in the Muslim vote from the LDF to the UDF could be the difference between a historic hat-trick for Pinarayi Vijayan and a return to the UDF’s traditional dominance.As the campaign reaches its crescendo, the Muslim community appears to be voting with a singular, tactical objective: ensuring that their representation is not traded away in the pursuit of a third term.