PORTUGAL and Croatia collide this Thursday night in Toronto in a mouthwatering Round of 32 tie that could double as one last World Cup stand for two of the game’s great veterans.
Roberto Martínez’s men head into the knockouts as favourites, but Zlatko Dalić’s battle-hardened Croatia have built a decade-long reputation for frustrating bigger sides when the stakes rise.
We’ve dug into the group-stage data to build a sharp four-legged 10/1 Betfred Bet Builder, along with the latest odds, team news and predicted line-ups.
Portugal vs Croatia kick-off time, date, TV channel and venue
Date: Friday, 3rd July, 2026
Kick-off: 12:00am BST
Venue: BMO Field, Toronto
Stage: Round of 32
TV Channel: BBC One, BBC iPlayer
Portugal vs Croatia bet builder tips
Here’s the 10/1 bet builder I’ve put together with Betfred – four legs based on verified tournament data rather than gut feeling.
Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime
Under 3.5 Total Match Goals
Total Match Cards Over 2.5
João Cancelo to commit 2+ fouls
➡️ Price: 10/1 at Betfred (odds correct at time of publishing)
This is the first-ever World Cup meeting between these two nations, and while Portugal carry the greater firepower, Croatia’s tournament pedigree means backing a landslide feels risky. Here’s the thinking leg by leg.
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Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime
Ronaldo’s group stage was a tale of contrasts, but the numbers tell their own story. He’s netted twice from just three games, is generating a tournament-high 4.33 shots per 90 minutes, and is testing goalkeepers at a rate of 2.00 shots on target per 90, backing up an expected goals return of 2.33 for the tournament so far.
His double against Uzbekistan made him Portugal’s outright leading scorer at World Cups and the first player in history to find the net across six different editions. Croatia shipped four goals to England on matchday one when their high line got exposed in transition, and even at 41, Ronaldo’s movement in behind remains the sharpest tool in Martínez’s box.
Under 3.5 Total Match Goals
The pre-match model rates this a 2.83 average-goals fixture, giving a game with more than 3.5 goals just a 33% chance. The sample backs it up: Portugal’s three group games produced totals of 2, 5 and 0, with the outlier being a rout of a limited Uzbekistan side sandwiched between two tight, low-scoring draws.
Croatia’s own totals of 6, 1 and 3 look busier on paper, but two of those three were disciplined 1-0 and 2-1 wins where they shut up shop after taking the lead. Knockout football, plus two sides who’ve both shown they can go very quiet when it matters, points away from an avalanche.
Total Match Cards Over 2.5
Norwegian official Espen Eskås takes charge of this one, and he’s shown himself to be one of the more card-happy referees on the FIFA list, averaging north of 4.5 total cards per match across his 2025/26 season for club and country, with his season-long yellow card average alone sitting comfortably above 4 per game.
Add in a first-ever competitive meeting between these two sides and a knockout spot on the line, and the conditions are there for the whistle to be busy, regardless of how disciplined Portugal and Croatia have looked individually in the group phase.
João Cancelo to commit 2+ fouls
Cancelo is Portugal’s most foul-prone starter by rate, committing his fouls at 1.98 per 90 minutes, comfortably the highest of anyone in Martínez’s back four. He’s started every game as Portugal’s right-back and is expected to do so again here, tasked with dealing with Croatia’s advanced wide threat in Ivan Perišić.
With the stakes rising and Cancelo needing to get tight to a dangerous, experienced opponent in behind, there’s a strong case for his combative instincts spilling into a multi-foul afternoon.
Portugal vs Croatia match preview
There’s no shortage of storylines heading into Toronto. Ronaldo, in his sixth and likely final World Cup, goes head to head with former Real Madrid teammate Luka Modrić, still dictating tempo in midfield at 40 years old as though the calendar simply doesn’t apply to him. Portugal finished second in Group K behind Colombia after a mixed campaign: a 1-1 opener against DR Congo, a statement 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan in which Ronaldo scored twice, and a goalless stalemate with Colombia in which they were second best for long spells.
Croatia’s route here was the harder one. Zlatko Dalić’s side were beaten 4-2 by England on matchday one, exposing real issues in defensive transition, before responding with the tournament resilience that has become their trademark – a 1-0 win over Panama followed by a 2-1 victory over Ghana to secure a runners-up spot in Group L, one point behind England.
This is the first time Portugal and Croatia have ever met at a World Cup, and the winner will face Spain or Austria in the Round of 16.
Key stats for Portugal vs Croatia
Ronaldo has scored 2 of Portugal’s 6 goals at these finals and is the first player in World Cup history to score in six different editions.
Croatia shipped four goals against England in their opener but have conceded just once in the two games since.
João Cancelo leads all Portugal starters for fouls per 90 minutes at 1.98.
Referee Espen Eskås is averaging north of 4.5 total cards per match across his 2025/26 season.
This is the first-ever World Cup meeting between Portugal and Croatia, with a sub-3.5-goal outcome rated a 67% chance by the pre-match model.
Portugal vs Croatia betting odds
Here are the latest odds provided by Betfred.
MarketOddsPortugal8/11Draw11/4Croatia18/5
Portugal vs Croatia predicted line-ups
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Félix; Ronaldo.
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Pongračić, Gvardiol; Modrić, Kovačić; Sučić, Baturina, Perišić; Budimir.
Portugal vs Croatia team news
Portugal: Martínez has a clean bill of health to choose from. João Neves returns to the starting XI after being rested for the final group game against Colombia, partnering Vitinha in a double pivot, while João Félix looks to have won the battle with Bernardo Silva for the left-sided role in the front four.
Croatia: Dalić also has no fresh injury concerns. Joško Gvardiol is expected to return at left-back after being surprisingly left out against Ghana, pushing Ivan Perišić back into his more advanced attacking role on the left. Managing Modrić’s workload is the main subplot, with the captain having played every minute so far.
Verdict
Expect Portugal’s superior attacking depth to eventually tell, but through a moment of individual class from their captain rather than a flood of goals. A repeat of the toothless draws against DR Congo and Colombia feels unlikely with a knockout spot on the line, but so does another Uzbekistan-style rout against a Croatia side who’ve built two decades of tournament pedigree on doing just enough.
With Eskås waving cards and Cancelo dragged into a defensive battle against Croatia’s most advanced outlet, this is a build with plenty of angles working in its favour. If you fancy a go, you can get behind this angle at 10/1 with Betfred, ahead of what might be Ronaldo and Modrić’s last hurrah.
Read more of our 2026 World Cup betting coverage
About the author
Craig Mahood
Craig Mahood is an expert in sports betting and online casinos and has worked with the company since 2020. He joined the Betting & Gaming team at The Jattvibe in June 2022 and works closely with the leading bookmakers and online gaming companies to provide content on all areas of sports betting and gaming. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter at the Scottish Jattvibe, covering Scottish football with particular focus on Celtic and Rangers, As well as football, he has covered horse racing, boxing, darts, the Olympics and tennis for the Jattvibe.
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