The Punjab Government has been opposing the release of Khadoor Sahib MP and National Security Act (NSA) detainee Amritpal Singh, citing potential threat to law and order.Political experts and leaders, however, maintained that the decision stems more from electoral strategy than genuine concerns for peace and harmony.Analysts and former police officers, speaking on the condition of anonymity, say Amritpal can become a key figure for the 2027 Assembly elections where he can impact the fate of several parties, including ruling AAP.Several AAP leaders fear that releasing Amritpal could see him rally supporters and build a strong base, jeopardising the party’s prospects in the elections. They worry alienating Hindus, constituting around 38 per cent of the state’s population. They fear that Hindus could shift to the BJP.AAP leaders vividly recall their 2017 poll debacle, when riding a wave of popularity and eyeing 100 of 117 seats, they secured just 20 after a pre-poll controversy over Arvind Kejriwal’s stay at the house of an alleged Khalistani ideologue.Analysts say Hindu votes then swung to the Congress, a pattern AAP dreads repeating as the BJP eyes gains on that plank. However, some party insiders reveal that Amritpal can prove favourable for them as he can check the votes of the Shiromani Akali Dal.In such a scenario, the AAP-led government can control the timing of his release, which will suit AAP more.Sources said in a multi-cornered fight with the Congress, BJP and the SAD, ruling AAP could benefit from vote split. But Amritpal’s appeal among the youth poses a threat.Akali leader Manpreet Singh Ayali, defying party brass to back Amritpal’s Shiromani Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De), accuses the government of fear-mongering. “They’re terrified of the lehar (political wave) he’ll unleash,” Ayali said.Ayali points to the recent zila parishad and panchayat poll wins in his Dakha constituency (Ludhiana), where candidates campaigned with Amritpal’s photo and won.“Amritpal Singh emerged out of a vacuum as the Sikhs lost faith in the SAD,” he said.Sikh historian and analyst Jagtar Singh predicts Amritpal as a pivotal force, in or out of jail. “Beyond Hindu vote math, his rise could blunt SAD’s resurgence,” he said.Sukhbir Badal’s Akali Dal is regaining traction, but Amritpal’s prominence might siphon core Sikh support.Union Minister and BJP MP Ravneet Singh Bittu has publicly demanded that Amritpal be allowed to attend Lok Sabha, akin to permission for a Kashmiri MP. Yet, the BJP remains officially mum.In court, responding to the Amritpal’s plea, the Centre clarified his detention falls under the Punjab Police orders, not Delhi’s.Experts feel that political leaders supporting Amritpal may not succeed as Punjabis vote for peace more than emotions. “Yes, the voters elected pro-Khalistani leaders when SAD (Amritsar) chief Simranjit Singh Mann and his leaders won in 1989 from various seats. But that remained one-off election,” said a political analyst.“Similarly, people voted for Amritpal and his supporter Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa in the 2024 Lok Sabha election on an emotional appeal that he was in jail. This may not happen again and Punjabis want progress and development and not violence,” the analyst said.