GERMANY’S group stage promised plenty and then tailed off, but they remain heavy favourites to see off a Paraguay side that has built its tournament on keeping the ball out rather than putting it in.
With Paraguay missing suspended midfielder Diego Gomez and badly short of attacking threat, here’s a Betway bet builder backing a controlled German win, plus team news and predicted line-ups.
Germany vs Paraguay kick-off time, date, TV channel and venue
Date: Monday, June 29
Kick-off: 9:30pm BST
Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough
Stage: Round of 32
TV channel: BBC One & iPlayer
Germany vs Paraguay bet builder tips
Here’s the bet builder with priced up at 12/1 with Betway, three legs that back Germany to win without Paraguay finding a way through at the other end.
Both teams to score (No)
Andres Cubas to be carded
Joshua Kimmich to score or assist
➡️ Price: 12/1 at Betway (odds correct at time of publishing)
ON THE BALL
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Both teams to score (No)
Granted, Germany are yet to keep a clean sheet at these finals, but Paraguay have really struggled going forward. Only Tunisia generated a lower expected goals tally across the group stage, with the South Americans managing just 1.22 xG and only five shots on target. They will also be without Diego Gomez through suspension, who doubled as their main set-piece threat, leaving an already blunt attack even shorter of ideas against a side that should dominate the ball.
Andres Cubas to be carded
No player at this World Cup has committed more fouls than the Paraguayan midfielder. He has given away 11 in 270 minutes, three more than the next closest challenger. He was booked seven times in 14 MLS appearances this season and has collected eight international cautions. Tasked with shielding a deep block against the movement of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, Cubas should again be reaching for the cynical foul, and the cards tend to follow.
Joshua Kimmich to score or assist
If Germany score, the Bayern Munich star is usually involved. Kimmich registered 14 goal contributions for Bayern last season, while he has produced 13 (three goals, 10 assists) in just 15 starts for Germany. Against a side that will sit deep and invite pressure, much of Germany’s creativity will run through Kimmich from deep and from set pieces, making the combined score-or-assist market the smart way to back his influence.
Germany vs Paraguay match preview
Germany reached the knockout stages for the first time since 2014, but they do so with question marks. Julian Nagelsmann’s side were thrilling in patches during the group, hammering Curacao 7-1 and edging Ivory Coast 2-1 through Deniz Undav’s stoppage-time winner, only to lose 2-1 to Ecuador once top spot was already secured. That defeat ended an 11-match winning run and left a sense that this team is yet to hit the gears that took them so close at Euro 2024. The attacking talent of Musiala, Wirtz, Leroy Sane and Kai Havertz is not in doubt, but the defence has looked open all tournament.
Paraguay, by contrast, are here on the back of a defensive overhaul. Beaten 4-1 by the USA in their opener, Gustavo Alfaro reshaped his side into a compact, deep-sitting unit that ground out a 1-0 win over Turkey and a 0-0 draw with Australia to sneak through as one of the best third-placed teams. The trade-off has been a near-total absence of attacking threat. Paraguay posted one of the lowest expected goals figures of any nation in the group, managed just five shots on target across three games, and their only goal came from a set piece, a route now weakened by Diego Gomez’s suspension.
The pattern, then, looks clear. Paraguay will pack the middle, frustrate and hope to nick something on the counter or from a dead ball, much as they did against Turkey. Germany have the quality to break that down and the motivation to bounce back, and while the four-time winners rarely make life easy for themselves, Paraguay simply may not carry enough at the other end to punish them. A tight, controlled German win is the likeliest outcome.
Key stats for Germany vs Paraguay
Paraguay produced one of the lowest expected goals tallies of all 48 nations in the group stage, with just 1.22 xG
Paraguay managed only five shots on target across their three group games
No player at the finals has committed more fouls than Andres Cubas, with 11 in 270 minutes
Germany have scored 10 goals at the World Cup but are yet to keep a clean sheet
Germany have never lost to Paraguay, winning their only previous World Cup meeting in 2002
Germany vs Paraguay betting odds
Here are the latest odds provided by Betway.
Germany vs Paraguay predicted line-ups
Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gill; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Almiron, Cubas, Galarza, Bobadilla; Enciso, Sanabria
Germany vs Paraguay team news
Germany: Julian Nagelsmann is without centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck, ruled out of the rest of the tournament with a knee injury suffered against Ivory Coast, but the experienced Antonio Rudiger steps in alongside Jonathan Tah. Left-back Nathaniel Brown shook off a minor muscle issue and is expected to return, while Nagelsmann is likely to keep Undav as an impact substitute and start Havertz through the middle.
Paraguay: Gustavo Alfaro loses a key man as Diego Gomez sits out through yellow-card accumulation, a real blow given he is Paraguay’s main set-piece taker and presser. Miguel Almiron is available again after serving his own suspension and should return on the right, but defender Omar Alderete is a doubt after a knock against Australia, which could nudge Alfaro towards a back four.
Verdict
Paraguay are unlikely to offer enough going forward to cause Julian Nagelsmann’s side too many problems. Expect Germany to control possession, break the low block down and keep the South Americans at arm’s length, with Kimmich pulling the strings. 12/1 at Betway.
Read more of our 2026 World Cup betting coverage
About the author
James Anderson
James Anderson is a Betting & Gaming Writer at The Jattvibe. He is an expert in sports betting and online casinos, and joined the company in November 2020 to work closely with leading bookmakers, casinos, and online gaming companies to curate content in all areas of iGaming and sports betting. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter and Head of Live Blogs/Events at the Daily Express and Daily Star, covering football, cricket, snooker, F1 and horse racing.
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