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As Opposition steps up anti-SIR stir, govt mulls special Parl session on delimitation, women’s quota

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Recent spells of anti-Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and anti-voter rolls revision protests have not managed to unsettle the Government yet.Starting October 10, when Cockroach Janta Party gave a call for an agitation at Jantar Mantar, the Government on and the Delhi Police have been clear in their minds about the nature of response to the protests.Preventive detentions and mass security deployment strategies have been deployed to handle the October 10 and the October 16 “Lehra do Tiranga” campaigns of Abhijeet Dipke led CJP.Delhi Police have clear instructions to prevent “unlawful protests” where the organisers have not been granted the permission to gather as was the case with the October 10 and 16 agitations.Meanwhile lawful marches as the one led by Rahul Gandhi in the heart of Delhi this week have been permitted. Another Congress led INDIA bloc’s anti SIR rally scheduled at Ramlila Grounds on November 1 has also been allowed.Ground offensives apart, the government this time is clear about not succumbing to any manner of political pressure against CEC Gyanesh Kumar.Conscious that the opposition lacks the numbers in Parliament, BJP leaders say the Congress led INDIA bloc is free to pilot a removal motion against Gyanesh Kumar and face the test of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.The ruling party has also drawn a clear distinction between response to the CJP led anti NEET-UG paper leak protests which it says genuinely agitated the youth and the current crop of protests which it feels lacks mass resonance and is political in nature.Wins in four of the six recent bypolls (two assembly byelections in West Bengal, one in Puducherry and a Lok Sabha bypoll win in Assam’s Nagaon) have served to bolster this thinking in the BJP which is convinced that the Opposition’s narrative is not working.The Friday victory of BJP-RSS linked ABVP in student union elections across 13 universities of Odisha, close on the heels of similar results in Panjab University Chandigarh and Delhi University has further given the ruling dispensation a reason to challenge the opposition.Union Home Minister Amit Shah has personally described ABVP’s campus wins as “youth’s endorsement of India first over anarchy and anti-nationalism.”The youngsters have shown that they stand with the ideology of Nation First rather than with the forces that spread lies, confusion and anarchy, he said after ABVP won.While the Congress agitated on the streets, the BJP has already begun planning for the crucial 2027 assembly election cycle when seven states will go to polls — Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. Of these the Congress holds only Himachal and the BJP rules in five except Punjab where AAP is in power.A larger counter narrative plan is also underway with government strategists are working to revive the pending agenda of delimitation and 33 % women’s reservation.Senior government leaders have signalled that a special session of Parliament may be convened soon to deal with the issue. They say they are nearing the two-thirds majority needed to pass the constitution amendment bills on delimitation and women’s reservation which, to pass, require a special majority of two thirds of MPs present and voting in both houses of Parliament.Senior NDA leaders are in touch with the 22-member DMK and many smaller parties on the issue and are confident that a new formulation would allay fears of south parties that their states will lose proportional representation in the Lok Sabha.DMK’s growing distance from Congress led anti CEC protests is a key giveaway that all is not well with the opposition camp.DMK chief MK Stalin has clarified that he would not work with the Congress which betrayed him by joining hands with the TVK to form the government in Tamil Nadu.Moreover DMK and NCP SP (which has 8 MPs in Lok Sabha) have both said they will firm up their positions on the delimitation agenda after looking at the Government’s new draft bill.The NDA dispensation for its part is learnt to be working on a formula that will be written into the new Constitution Amendment Bill in order to assure all skeptics that their Lok Sabha presence would not be compromised or undermined by the new delimitation bill.Shah had, during the special session held in April, also offered to redraft the related draft law to say that every state will get 50 % seats over and above their current Lok Sabha strength as part of the delimitation proposal.That didn’t cut ice with the opposition which defeated the agenda.It remains to be seen how the Government musters the numbers this time, with the Congress continuing its steadfast opposition to delimitation and seeking 33 % women’s quota on Lok Sabha’s current strength of 543 members.But senior government leaders are upbeat about pushing ahead, with sources saying the NDA is targeting the support of 380 MPs in Lok Sabha and working to gather it.The Tribune has some of the math behind the numbers. The current effective strength of the 543 member Lok Sabha is 540 due to three vacancies. If all these MPs vote, two thirds of the number comes to 360.The NDA currently has the support of 320 MPs (including 20 TMC rebels, 6 Shiv Sena MPs and one Shiromani Akali Dal MP). Four YSRCP MPs will also support the NDA taking the numbers to 324, still short of 360. DMK’s 22 MPs, NCP’s eight will be key.In Rajya Sabha similarly the effective strength of the House is 244 MPs and two thirds mark is 164.The NDA has over 154 members with YSRCP in support. That would mean 158 MPs, six short of a special majority needed to pass a constitution amendment bill.

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