Retail inflation surged to 6.09 per cent in October, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit for the first time in two years and strengthening expectations that the central bank may consider a policy rate hike next month.Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation had stood at 5.54 per cent in September. A sustained rise in food and beverage prices, along with higher inflation in restaurant services and transport, contributed significantly to the increase in the October headline figure.Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed that food inflation jumped to 8.94 per cent in October from 7.74 per cent in September, underscoring continued price pressures in essential commodities and their impact on overall inflation.The latest reading comes after the government revised the base year for the CPI from 2012 to 2024 in February this year, updating the basket of goods used to measure price changes.With inflation crossing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance band of 2-6 per cent, concerns have resurfaced over persistent price pressures.Food items, which account for nearly 40 per cent of the CPI basket, continue to be the main driver of retail inflation. Onion prices have nearly doubled since the start of the year, while protein-rich foods such as meat, milk and eggs have also witnessed significant price increases.Higher global food prices have further intensified domestic pressures, particularly through costlier imports of edible oils and other commodities. Economists had projected food inflation to rise to around 8.20 per cent in October from 7.74 per cent in September.A survey of economists conducted between November 2 and 6 had pegged headline retail inflation at 5.93 per cent, with forecasts ranging from 5.50 per cent to 6.60 per cent.Retail inflation has remained above the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 per cent for four consecutive months. Price pressures are expected to persist in the coming months, with global crude oil prices still around 40 per cent higher than levels seen before the US-Iran conflict.The RBI has projected average inflation at 5.2 per cent for the current financial year, up from its earlier estimate of 5 per cent. The projection is also higher than the 5.1 per cent median forecast in a survey conducted last month.