While full details of the government’s proposed delimitation plan—linked to the early implementation of 33 per cent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha—are not yet available, an initial reading of the draft Bills offers insight into how seat allocation across states could change.The Tribune examined the possible changes that northern states—Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and J&K—could see in the new Lok Sabha.The analysis is based on a preliminary reading of the drafts, which suggest a population-based (2011 Census) readjustment of seats for each state rather than a proportional system (where the percentage share of seats allocated to states remains constant in relation to the overall strength of the Lok Sabha).Calculation of seats in the new Lok SabhaThe government Bill makes two main proposals:One, delimitation (redrawing of Lok Sabha and state assembly constituencies) will be based on 2011 Census data rather than the 2026 Census, which began on April 1 and will take time to complete.Two, the total number of Lok Sabha seats would increase from 543 to 850.A first reading of the Bills suggests a population-based readjustment of Lok Sabha seats.Based on these proposals, the calculation formula is as follows:Divide India’s 2011 population of 1.2 billion by 850. The resulting figure is approximately 14 lakh. Then divide each state’s 2011 population by 14 lakh to estimate the number of seats it would receive in an 850-member Lok Sabha.This method would change the percentage share of seats held by each state. Opposition parties oppose this shift, arguing that the percentage representation of states should remain the same as in the current Lok Sabha.How Punjab, Haryana and Himachal seats could changePunjab’s population in 2011 was 2.7 crore. Its Lok Sabha seats could increase from the current 13 to 19 in the new House under a population-based formula. This represents a gain of six seats, but a decline in proportional share—from 2.4% in a 543-member House to 2.1% in an 850-member House.Under a proportional system, Punjab’s share would remain unchanged. This would translate to around 20 seats (2.4% of 850).Himachal Pradesh, with a 2011 population of 6,864,602, would have about 4.9 seats when divided by 14 lakh—effectively 5 seats in an 850-member House, compared to 4 at present. Under proportional representation, it should get 6 seats.Haryana currently has 10 Lok Sabha seats. Dividing its 2011 population of 25,352,462 by 14 lakh yields 18 seats—a gain of eight seats. This would also increase its share from 1.8% to 2.1% of the Lok Sabha. Under proportional representation, Haryana would have 16 seats instead of 18.Jammu and Kashmir, with a 2011 population of 12,541,302, would have 9 seats in an 850-member House—an increase of four from its current 5 seats. Under proportional representation, it would have 8 seats.What about Uttar Pradesh?On a population basis, Uttar Pradesh would see the largest increase in seats. Its representation would rise from 80 to 143 seats (based on its 2011 population of 20 crore divided by 14 lakh).Under a proportional system, however, Uttar Pradesh would have around 125 seats, maintaining its current share of 14.7% instead of increasing to 16.8% under a population-based allocation.