ANDY Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election – but the fight for No10 is about to begin.
The Manchester Mayor romped home to victory last night, beating Reform’s Rob Kenyon by nearly 10,000 votes.
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Andy Burnham beat Reform in Makerfield by 10,000 votes Credit: PA
Sir Keir Starmer talking to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 earlier this week Credit: AFP
His victory sets the King of the North up to challenge Sir Keir Starmer as he’s proven he can beat Nigel Farage’s insurgent party.
Burnham is also popular with Labour MPs and the party more broadly.
And now he is heading to Westminster where he will be able to take on the PM.
Here are the four ways Labour’s summer civil war could play out.
BURN NOTICE
Burnham wins Makerfield to set up Keir showdown & summer of Labour civil war
BRIDGES BURN-ED?
Andy Burnham ‘will snub job in Starmer’s Cabinet’ if he wins by-election
Burnham punches the air after winning the Makerfield by-election Credit: EPA
STARMER QUITS
The Prime Minister and Burnham have a conversation over the course of the weekend and Sir Keir concludes the game is up.
He announces a resignation – with Mr Burnham potentially becoming leader after a short contest or a coronation.
Likelihood rating: 1 out of 5
Sir Keir has repeatedly vowed to fight any leadership challenge and recent reports revealed he has amassed a six-figure war chest to fund his campaign.
ORDERLY TRANSITION
The pair could strike a deal – with the PM agreeing to stand down after Labour conference in September.
This would allow Mr Burnham to prepare for power and spare the party an all-out war.
Likelihood rating: 2 out of 5
Andy Burnham and many Cabinet ministers would prefer this option. But it would leave Sir Keir a lame duck and he may struggle to accept such a public timetable for his own departure.
STARMER DIGS IN AND THEN FALLS
The PM refuses to budge and dares Mr Burnham or other leadership hopefuls to force him out.
But Cabinet ministers, junior ministers and MPs ramp up the pressure.
Resignations start and the Prime Minister eventually finds himself unable to carry on – in a similar way to what happened to former Tory PM Boris Johnson.
Mr Burnham inherits the wreckage and enters No10.
Likelihood rating: 4 out of 5
The Prime Minister has not shown any sign of wanting to quit or agree to a timetable for his own departure. His allies insist he is not bluffing when he says he will not go down easy.
ALL-OUT LEADERSHIP WAR
Sir Keir refuses to quit and Mr Burnham secures enough support to challenge him. Wes Streeting and others pile in. Labour spends months tearing itself apart while Reform looks on. Mr Burnham eventually wins, but emerges bruised and with a divided party.
Likelihood: 3 out of 5.
Mr Burnham’s camp want to avoid this, but they may have underestimated Sir Keir’s determination to stay.
Was Andy Burnham’s biggest ally in Makerfield Sir Keir Starmer?
By Martina Bet, Chief Political Correspondent
ANDY Burnham’s biggest ally in Makerfield wasn’t Greater Manchester. It was Sir Keir Starmer.
The Prime Minister has become so unpopular that a vote for Mr Burnham undeniably became, for many, a vote to get rid of the man in No10.
And Mr Burnham won comfortably.
His 24,927 votes put Reform’s Rob Kenyon more than 9,000 behind, with Rupert Lowe’s Restore failing to play spoiler.
Rebecca Shepard’s 3,111 votes made less difference than many expected.
Even if every one had gone to Reform, the Greater Manchester Mayor still wins.
For Nigel Farage’s party, there may now be some uncomfortable questions.
Makerfield was one of Reform’s best second places in 2024 and Wigan had turned turquoise in May’s local elections.
Yet despite Labour’s troubles, the party failed to break through, while the emergence of Restore showed the challenge of holding together the Right as well as broadening its appeal.
Burnham’s camp also had one thing above all else in common over the past five weeks: winning the by-election .
That shared purpose kept everyone pulling in the same direction, from Blue Labour figures to the soft-left of the party.
Nobody cared about ideological differences because there was a bigger prize at stake.
But removing a Prime Minister is one thing while running the country is another.
Sir Keir had four years to prepare for government and still arrived in Downing Street looking like a man without a plan.
Burnham’s team has had five weeks.
His victory speech was heavy on “hope”, “unity” and “change” and understandably so; elections are won on broad themes.
But as the dawn breaks today, the questions are just going to get harder.
What is Burnhamism? Who pays for it? Which side wins the arguments inside his camp?
Makerfield was the easy bit. Proving you can govern Britain better is something else entirely.
