As the stakes rise for West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the coming Assembly elections, winning Uttor (North) Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad districts where Muslims comprise over 50 per cent of the total population has become extremely crucial for the political survival of the Trinamool Congress president.Mamata is seeking a fourth consecutive win against mounting resistance from the BJP, a party that has risen from the margins to become the main opposition in the state and now has ambitions to form the next government.In the past, the state has been ruled by the Congress, Left Front and coalitions led by regional parties. But never has a right-wing party with a pronounced Hindu ideology won. If the BJP manages to win and form the government, it will be a record of sorts.In this year’s Assembly poll, a section of the voters has started looking at the BJP as a viable option against the TMC. Therefore, it has now become imperative for the ruling party to retain most of the seats in the three districts where it had performed well in the last Assembly election.According to the 2011 Census, Uttor Dinajpur and Malda (districts in north Bengal) had a Muslim population of over 51 and 52 per cent while the count stood at over 66 per cent (considered to be the highest in the state) in Murshidabad. But estimates show that the current Muslim population in Murshidabad may have reached 70 per cent and 55 per cent in the other two districts. The three districts together have 43 Assembly seats–nine in Uttor Dinajpur, 12 in Malda and 22 in Murshidabad.In the 2021 Assembly elections, Mamata had a clear domination in all three districts. Of the nine seats in Uttor Dinajpur, she won seven and the BJP two. Of the 12 seats in Malda, the TMC won eight and the BJP four. In Murshidabad, her win was more emphatic as of the 22 seats, the TMC had won 20 and the BJP only two.This year, however, the contest is close as there are a number of players in the fray, apart from the traditional parties. Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and the Indian Secular Front are among the contenders along with the TMC, BJP, CPM and the Congress.The Congress and the Left parties have also become active in the field. While there is little chance of the BJP’s support among Hindus getting diluted, the pool of pro-Muslim parties has got crowded. There is speculation that this could decrease Mamata’s vote share among the Muslims.The presence of Congress’ Mausam Noor, niece of legendary party leader ABA Ghani Khan Chaudhury, in Malda and former Congress state president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in Murshidabad’s Berhampur are likely to win a few seats.In addition, Humayun Kabir, ISF, AIMIM and the Left parties can all chip away crucial Muslim votes in closely fought contests. Moreover, as most political parties are gravitating towards the Muslim voters, the Hindus have started looking at the only party highlighting their concerns–BJP.