IT’S the doomsday scenario looking likelier by the day as bloodthirsty tyrant Vladimir Putin steps up his wild anti-UK threats while our ironclad commitment to Ukraine stands firm.
Starting with a brazen sabotage attack on British soil to test our resolve, ex-Nato war planner and UK intelligence officer Philip Ingram details the terrifyingly plausible way a full-scale UK-Russia war could erupt – and quickly spiral into World War 3.
Could Vladimir Putin really launch an attack on the UK? Credit: AFP
Philip Ingram explains here how a confrontation could explode between the UK and Russia
In many ways, Russia and Britain are already at war – we are seeing it right now.
Cyber attacks are hitting us every day, we’ve seen attacks on warehouses, we’ve seen spyships menacing our critical infrastructure, we’ve seen warships in the Channel – with shots fired, we’ve seen assassinations on our streets, we’ve seen an attack on the home of the Prime Minister.
In this way – this “grey zone” – a war has begun, and it is all down to our support of Ukraine. Russia has already threatened “consequences” for Britain – and accused the UK of fuelling the war as Andy Burnham handed over blueprints for long range Storm Shadow missiles this week.
So now the question is what will those “consequences” look like? And while what I lay out here is a worst case scenario – it shows why we must act to defend ourselves and how quickly this crisis could get out of control.
Britain continues to back Ukraine against Putin – with PM Andy Burnham pictured here meeting Volodymyr Zelensky Credit: AP
Beginning this new stage of the war – a furious and frustrated Russia ramps up their efforts to disrupt and unsettle the UK, bombing a British military base on UK soil in a sabotage attack.
We’ve already seen how activist groups can get onto these sites. So it is not unthinkable someone could deliver a bomb.
Elsewhere – attacks on infrastructure suddenly increase.
Chemical nerve agents are unleashed on Britain’s streets – with targeted assassinations of both Russian dissidents and the CEOs of some of our defence companies.
We see a massive increase in cyberattacks – and more warehouses are burned down linked to the supply of British weapons to Ukraine.
The UK is now under siege. Chaos.
Andy Burnham urgently summons what is often called a Cobra meeting in the Cabinet Office briefing room A.
The heads of the military, intelligence services, and the country’s top police chiefs all meet. The mood is grim, with the shadow of a hot war now growing ever longer across the UK.
British ships could move to seize more of the ‘Shadow Fleet’ operating around the UK Credit: PA
Royal Marines have already moved to capture some of Vlad’s illegal ships Credit: PA
Publicly, Russia denies everything with a wry smile – but Burnham doesn’t believe them.
And the PM decides now is time of the UK to act.
So he reaches for one Putin’s lifelines – Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of illegal vessels that smuggle war material brazenly around the world.
Burnham deploys the Royal Marines and Royal Navy with one order – capture these ships.
He expels Russian diplomats from the UK and calls in the Russian ambassador to issue the strongest rebuke yet of the Kremlin.
Britain stands steely – and tells Putin, we will not back down.
But unfortunately – in this scenario – Moscow doesn’t and the spiral to war deepens.
British merchant ships are then suddenly attacked in Southeast Asia as Putin responds in kind to Burnham’s plan.
And swarms of Russian warships then begin appearing in the English Channel and Irish Sea escorting the shadow fleet. Daring the UK to act.
Royal Navy and Border Force vessels shadowing them pull in close – shots are fired across their bows. Britain’s sailors show restrain and don’t fire back – but the tension are rising, the situation is growing out of control.
And then those spyships that have been seen so often around Britain in recent years, they finally come into play – providing the data on the UK’s critical infrastructure to the Kremlin.
This data is then passed to the shadow fleet – who then drag their massive 35-ton anchors in a coordinated move across key undersea data cables beneath the sea.
Commandos could swoop on the ships in the English Channel and Irish Sea Credit: MOD
And in response to an attack on undersea cables, the UK could sink a Russian ship
Internet and phone connections go down. Critical services collapse. Carnage descends across the UK.
The PM is now incandescent with anger and with little diplomatic options left on the table to deter an emboldened and brazen Russia they reach for a military option.
Identifying one the ships behind the attack on the cables and the Government give the order: “Sink it”.
With Harpoon anti-ship missiles, a Royal Navy frigate sinks one of the responsible tankers in the English Channel.
Moscow says this is a declaration of war.
Britain invokes Nato‘s Article 4 – calling for an urgent meeting of the alliance and vow a collective response.
The US and the rest of Europe isn’t sure – they fear escalation. Putin smells weakness in the alliance – which is already weary after years of support for Ukraine.
And that is when Russia responds with a missile attack on the UK – the first air raid on Britain since the Blitz.
Moscow launches a limited strike on a target outside of London – perhaps a naval base or an military airfield.
Burnham is now urgently calling on Nato to invoke Article 5 – the core rule of the alliance that is triggered when an armed attack is made by a member.
Putin wants to keep the UK isolated – knowing they cannot face the whole of Nato.
Diplomatic games are begun to be played by the Kremlin – they blame Britain, they say the UK started this – they sunk one of our ships.
Putin would then respond with a missile attack on the UK Credit: EPA
Could the UK see an air raid for the first time since World War 2? Credit: Reuters
Germany, Poland and the other Baltic states back Britain – but Nato’s largest member, the US, holds fire.
US President Donald Trump calls for calm and doesn’t want to get drawn into a war with Russia.
The international order sees the threat of World War 3 – and they try to step back from it.
Britain is for now standing alone. But what can we do? We don’t have missiles that can reach Russia.
The UK doubles down on support for Ukraine – imposing a no fly zone and sending RAF jets into the warzone.
British forces then join Kyiv in attacking positions in occupied Ukraine.
Russia responds with further missile attacks on the UK – they fire at London.
There are mass civilian casualties.
The UN Security Council meets – the world sits on the brink. China throws its weight behind Russia.
Putin doubles down – he threatens other Nato nations if they back Britain.
Russian and Belarusian forces pour through the Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Vlad’s military enclave of Kaliningrad – a narrow 60-mile stretch of land separating Poland and Lithuania that allows them to cut off the Baltic states in a bid to put pressure on Nato.
There is now no choice left – Article 5 is triggered, and Nato is now at war with Russia.
Will Donald Trump risk joining a European war with Russia? Credit: AFP
And could Putin’s pals Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un seek to exploit the chaos? Credit: Reuters
The world awaits to see if the United States will ride to Europe’s aid.
And elsewhere, the carnage spreads – China seeks to attack Taiwan to take advantage of a distracted West.
North Korean bad boy tyrant Kim Jong-un also sees an opportunity – and launches an assault across the border, seeking to reunify the peninsula.
War now roils in Europe and Asia – and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East between the US and Iran.
And what started as Britain and Russia one-upping each other in this growing row over Ukraine has spiralled into World War 3.
It shows how one trigger point can spiral out of control and suddenly see the whole world aflame.
This is a worst case scenario – and one with some poetic licence – but the threat of war both here and abroad is chillingly real.
