Preliminary reading of the draft Bills the government has circulated with regards to the plans to advance women’s quota rollout to the 2029 elections reveals how the seats of northern states could change.The Tribune looked at the two scenarios — population based delimitation and proportional representation for states — to compute the possible scenarios on what the new 850-member Lok Sabha could hold for Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and J&K.The analysis is based on the first reading of the drafts which suggest a population based (2011 census) readjustment of seats of every state although government leaders today said the representation would be proportional which means the percentage of seats allocated to states as against their overall strength of the LS will remain the same as it is today.The government’s principal Bill — Constitution 131st Amendment Bill, 2026 — to be piloted by Law Minister Arjun Meghwal tomorrow makes two main proposals — first, the delimitation (redrawing of Lok Sabha and state assembly constituencies in states) will be done on the basis of 2011 Census data rather than 2026 Census which started only this April 1 and will take time; second — the number of seats in the Lok Sabha will rise up to 850.Based on these proposals, the rough formula to calculate seats for each state in the new LS would be the following — Divide India’s 2011 population of 1.2 billion by 850. The figure this yields is 14 lakh. Then divide the 2011 population of every state with 14 lakh to get the number of seats that state will have in an 850-member LS. This calculation will hold if population-based delimitation is done. Opposition parties however want proportional representation in which case the number of seats would be different.Punjab’s population in 2011 was 2.7 crore. Its Lok Sabha seats could increase from the current 13 to 19 in the new LS when calculated on population basis. This would mean a gain of six seats but a proportional fall in share from 13 seats (2.4 per cent of the Lok Sabha) in a 543-member LS to 19 (2.1 per cent of LS) seats in an 850-member LS.However, if the government grants proportional representation, that would mean Punjab’s seats would increase to 20 which would mean 2.4 per cent of 850 seats.Himachal’s population in 2011 was 68,64,602. Divide this with 14 lakh and the number is 4.9. So Himachal will see at most five LS seats in a 850-member House as against four today. For proportional representation in the 850-member House, Himachal’s seats should rise to 6.Haryana has 10 seats in the Lok Sabha. Dividing its 2011 population of 2,53,52,462 with 14 lakh yields the figure of 18 — a gain of eight seats and a gain in representation from the current 1.8 per cent of the Lok Sabha to 2.1 per cent.In a proportional representation scenario, Haryana’s seats should rise to 16 instead of 18. J&K will get nine seats in a 850-member House (2011 population 1,25,41,302 divided by 14 lakh). This will mean a gain of four seats. Today J&K has five seats. By proportional representation also J&K should get eight seats.Contrast this with UP which will gain the most seats in the new LS should population based readjustment of constituencies be done. On this basis, UP’s seats will rise from 80 currently to 143 (2011 population of 20 crore divided by 14 lakh). But if proportional representation is done UP will get 125 seats in the new LS which would mean its current LS share of 14.7 % will stay as it is instead of rising to 16.8 % in the population based calculation scenario.The Opposition is demanding that proportional share of seats of every state — the percentage of seats they have in the current House — should remain unaltered so that no state gains disproportionately to the other. They say southern states currently have 24 per cent representation in the Lok Sabha. If population based delimitation is done this may fall to 20 per cent share whereas the 37 per cent representation of five Northern States today will rise to 43 per cent — a rise they term unfair.