The 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections have delivered a fractured mandate, with actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the single-largest party but falling short of the majority mark in the 234-member House.TVK, founded as recently as 2024, secured 107 seats, 11 short of the halfway mark of 118. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance finished second with 74 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) trailed with 53 seats. No other party managed to open its account, underscoring a sharply polarised contest.The verdict has pushed Tamil Nadu into a classic hung Assembly, setting the stage for intense backroom negotiations and political realignments.Race to 118: Possible scenariosWith no formation able to independently stake claim, attention has shifted to how TVK will bridge the gap:TVK courts smaller DMK alliesTVK could attempt to win over smaller constituents of the DMK alliance, including the Indian National Congress and Left parties like Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India (Marxist). Together, these parties account for around a dozen MLAs. Support from outfits like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) could help TVK cross the majority mark.However, such a move could have implications for opposition unity at the national level, particularly the INDIA bloc, where the DMK plays a key role.DMK-led alliance backs TVKAnother possibility is outside support from the DMK-led alliance, allowing Vijay to form the government without defections. While this is numerically viable and politically less disruptive at the national level, there has been no clear indication from the DMK leadership so far.Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has maintained that the people’s verdict will be respected, while DMK MP Kanimozhi said the party would “introspect” and continue to serve the electorate.AIADMK factor remains uncertainSpeculation has also swirled around possible support from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). But senior leader C. Ponnaiyan publicly ruled out any alliance with TVK during counting day.Adding to the complexity, TVK strategist John Arokiasamy reiterated that the party has “no interest” in aligning with AIADMK or the BJP, calling the saffron party its “ideological enemy.” This effectively shuts the door on any arrangement involving the NDA unless major political shifts occur.Interestingly, DMK MP Kalanidhi Veeraswami suggested that AIADMK could still emerge as a potential supporter, indicating that “we have to wait and watch” how the situation unfolds.A historic disruptionThe election marks a watershed moment in Tamil Nadu politics, long dominated by the DMK and AIADMK since 1967. Vijay’s rapid rise has disrupted this bipolar structure, positioning TVK as a formidable third force—now on the brink of power.Elections to all 234 seats were held on April 23, with counting concluding on May 5. According to Election Commission trends during counting, TVK had crossed the 100-seat mark comfortably, consolidating its position as the principal contender to form the next government.What Next?All eyes are now on Vijay’s next move. As the single-largest party, TVK is expected to stake claim to form the government. Whether Vijay becomes Tamil Nadu’s first chief minister outside the DMK-AIADMK axis in nearly six decades will depend on his ability to secure crucial post-poll support in the coming days.With inputs from PTI/ANI