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When will fuel prices go down? What experts predict for petrol and diesel costs in the UK

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DRIVERS are facing another hit at the forecourt as petrol and diesel prices surge to levels not seen since 2022.

Petrol has climbed to an average of 169.68p a litre, and diesel has reached 191.68p.

Filling a standard 55-litre family car now costs £93 for petrol and over £105 for diesel Credit: Getty

The spike follows escalating Middle East conflict and the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz Credit: Reuters

That means filling a standard 55-litre family car now costs £93 for petrol and over £105 for diesel.

The spike follows escalating Middle East conflict, drone strikes on Saudi Arabian pipelines, and the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which have all sent crude oil past $108 (£80) a barrel.

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So, when can motorists expect relief at the pumps?

When will fuel prices go down?

Drivers should prepare for forecourt prices to remain high in the immediate weeks ahead.

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Because crude oil takes around two weeks to be refined, transported, and delivered to local petrol stations, the recent jump in crude oil past $108 a barrel is still working its way into pump prices.

Every $10 (£7.44) increase in a barrel of crude adds roughly 7p a litre at the forecourt.

RAC policy chief Simon Williams has said that with global markets so unpredictable, “there’s no end in sight to high pump prices and the pain it brings to drivers who depend on their vehicles” in the near term.

He added: “In fact, the average price of diesel may be on the way to overtaking the record high of 199.05p set on 25 June 2022.

“Petrol, however, is still a long way from its all-time record of 191.53p on 3 July 2022.”

Will prices come down in the autumn?

But there is potential for relief as Britain moves into autumn.

Global demand for fuel often drops off after the summer holiday driving peak, which can help to lower wholesale costs.

If international oil markets stabilise and crude slips back toward $80 a barrel, industry analysts suggest pump prices could fall by 5p to 10p a litre before winter sets in.

But any meaningful drop depends on whether diplomatic efforts can ease tension in the Middle East and restore regular shipping routes.

What’s being done to keep costs down?

While global oil markets remain out of the government’s hands, measures are in place across the UK to shield motorists from even worse hits at the forecourts.

To keep costs down, former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer extended a temporary 5p-per-litre fuel duty discount to the end of 2026, providing households with a financial buffer.

Fuel duty is a tax built into every litre of fuel, which then gets hit with an extra 20% VAT, effectively taxing drivers twice when they fill up.

But that protection could be short-lived.

The Treasury is expected to step fuel duty back up in 2027, and once VAT is added, losing the discount will slap over 6p a litre onto forecourt prices.

The RAC and other motoring groups are lobbying ministers to extend the 5p freeze indefinitely to protect driver budgets long-term.

Industry watchdogs also continue to track forecourts to make sure retailers don’t artificially inflate their margins or gouge drivers during market spikes.

How to cut your fuel bills

While drivers wait for markets to cool, there are a number of direct steps you can take to squeeze more miles out of every tank.

Track down cheaper forecourts: Use the government’s official Fuel Finder scheme or similar price apps to map nearby stations. Prices can differ by up to 10p a litre within just a few miles.

Skip premium unleaded: Unless you drive a high-performance vehicle, regular E10 petrol is completely suitable for standard engines.

Lighten the vehicle: Carrying extra weight wastes fuel. Uncluttering the boot and removing unused roof racks or box carriers can boost efficiency by up to 10%.

Adjust your driving style: Gentle acceleration, shifting gears early, and maintaining smooth speeds can cut overall fuel consumption by up to 15%.

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