India logged its fifth-driest June since records began in 1901 and is likely to receive below-average monsoon rainfall in July as well, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.It said the weather conditions were favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into the remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal, Ladakh, Uttar Pradesh, Daman & Diu, J&K, most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab, and parts of Rajasthan during the next two-three days.The long-period average of rainfall over the country as a whole during July, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 280.4 mm.“We are expecting good rainfall activity over east-central India, which includes the eastern part of Vidarbha, Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha, some parts of north-eastern states such as Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram, and parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh,” IMD DG M Mohapatra said.In July, the maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of India except a few isolated areas in west-central India where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely.The minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most regions of the country except some isolated pockets of central and north-east India where normal minimum temperatures are likely.Weak El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A weak ENSO phase typically corresponds to a subdued or slightly below-normal monsoon.The southwest monsoon on Tuesday further advanced into more parts of Madhya Pradesh, the remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, and parts of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh.Against the normal of 165.3 mm rainfall in June, India received 99.5 mm, recording a deficit of 39.8 per cent. The core monsoon zone encompassing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Maharashtra, Odisha and the Indo-Gangetic Plain received below normal rainfall on most days in June.A deficient June does not necessarily lead to a deficient monsoon season. Since 1951, 26 years have experienced below-normal June rainfall. Of these, eight years (31 per cent) subsequently recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall, 15 years (58 per cent) normal seasonal rainfall, and three years (12 per cent) ended with above-normal seasonal rainfall.Thus, about 69 per cent (18 of 26 years) with a poor June rainfall did not result in a deficient all-India monsoon, highlighting that June rainfall alone is not the only factor for the seasonal monsoon outcome.