Early projections from the pollster, Today’s Chanakya, indicate a decisive shift in the political landscape, with the BJP poised for a breakthrough in West Bengal and a dominant hold in Assam, while Tamil Nadu appears set for continuity under the DMK and Kerala heads towards a tight contest with the Congress-led UDF, holding a narrow edge.In West Bengal, the projections point to a major upset in the 294-member Assembly. The BJP is estimated to secure 192 ± 11 seats with a 48 per cent vote share, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 148. The ruling TMC is seen dropping to 100 ± 11 seats with 38 per cent votes, indicating a sharp slide that could end its long spell in office. The Left-Congress combine and other players are reduced to the margins, with just 2 ± 2 seats and a combined vote share of 14 per cent.Assam presents a far more one-sided picture. In the 126-member House, where 64 seats are required for a majority, the BJP-led NDA is projected to return with a sweeping 102 ± 9 seats and a 50 per cent vote share. The Congress-led alliance is pegged at 23 ± 9 seats with 38 per cent votes, while others are expected to manage just one seat. The numbers indicate a near-total consolidation in favour of the ruling alliance.In Tamil Nadu, the contest reflects continuity with a new entrant altering the arithmetic. The DMK-led alliance is projected to win 125 ± 11 seats in the 234-member Assembly, with a 39 per cent vote share, clearing the halfway mark of 118. The entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerges as the key development, with the party projected to secure 63 ± 11 seats and 30 per cent votes. The NDA is pushed to third place with 45 ± 11 seats and a 27 per cent vote share, while others remain marginal.Kerala is expected to witness a close contest, with the projections suggesting a possible return of the state’s alternating power pattern. In the 140-member Assembly, where 71 seats are needed for a majority, the Congress-led UDF is estimated at 69 ± 9 seats with a 40 per cent vote share, narrowly ahead of the ruling LDF at 64 ± 9 seats with 38 per cent votes. The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 7 seats with a 20 per cent vote share, while others may not open their account.The projections do not include Puducherry. Votes for all four states are scheduled to be counted on May 4.