The arrest of AAP’s former Industry Minister Sanjeev Arora by the Enforcement Directorate on May 9, followed by a CBI raid at the Punjab Vigilance Bureau office last week, is forcing Punjab’s political class to look afresh at the role of central agencies as well as the BJP in the state.Arora was arrested for his alleged role in a money-laundering case. The probe has now expanded to investigations against his business associates, Hemant Sood and Chander Shekhar. Since favours in withdrawing bank guarantees were extended to a company associated with the minister, two top officials of Punjab State Power Corporation Limited have also been summoned by the ED. The company, Hampton Sky Realty, is linked to alleged money laundering and bogus exports scandal. For Punjab’s political class, the message is clear. Fresh from its victory in West Bengal, the BJP has openly signalled its determination to expand into Punjab — a state it has never won on its own.The BJP is clearly sensing an opportunity. It is expected to go after AAP’s agenda of anti-corruption, which gave it a landslide win in the last elections, which is why the arrest of a senior AAP leader on charges of money-laundering was such a jolt to AAP. The drug problem is growing by leaps and bounds. The Narcotics Control Bureau bust of the “jihadi drug”, 227 kg Captagon, via a Syria-Gulf smuggling route, is part of an attempt to tell people that it cares about Punjab.Equally significant is the political messaging emerging from West Bengal after the BJP’s victory there. One of the Centre’s early assurances to the new state government involved financial relief and improved cash flows. Punjab, burdened with one of the country’s worst GDP-to-debt ratios, could see similar promises.For AAP, the stakes are high. The party is believed to have drawn lessons from its defeat in Delhi. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has responded aggressively, framing the ED and CBI actions as part of a larger “Punjab versus Delhi” confrontation. He has simultaneously sharpened attacks on PM Narendra Modi, questioning the Centre on issues ranging from foreign visits to calls for austerity among citizens.The “Punjab versus Delhi” narrative is expected to become central to the AAP’s campaign strategy. The party hopes to tap into Punjab’s long-standing sentiment of not giving up without a fight. It is also banking on welfare measures, particularly the promised monthly stipend to women, to consolidate support.Internally, AAP is reorganising rapidly amid rumours of defections. Party president Aman Arora has been given the Industry portfolio, Finance Minister Harpal Cheema is being projected more prominently and Assembly Speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan has been pushed into the political spotlight on sensitive Sikh issues.The coming months are likely to define Punjab’s political future. The defection of seven MPs led by Raghav Chadha has certainly hit AAP. It remains uncertain whether the ED and CBI actions will deepen anti-incumbency against the party or strengthen the party’s resolve by allowing it to project itself as a victim of political targeting. AAP will look to fight a slowdown in decision-making as bureaucrats turn more cautious in the wake of every work in the state being looked microscopically by the central agencies.