The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday updated India’s growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026-2027 to 6.5 per cent, an increase from the earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent made in January.The IMF states that despite global uncertainty, India’s growth forecast is still favorable.Growth for 2025 has been revised upward by 1.0 percentage points from October forecasts to 7.6 per cent, which reflects sustained momentum in the fourth quarter and better-than-expected performance in the second and third quarters of the fiscal year.However, it cautioned that growing geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing conflict in West Asia, could impede the pace of the global economy and raise prices.It noted that under the assumption of a limited conflict, global growth is projected at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, below recent outcomes and well under prepandemic averages.IMF highlighted that the global inflation is expected to tick up in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027. Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities.Risks are decisively on the downside. A prolonged conflict, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, disappointment over AI-driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could weaken growth and unsettle markets.The IMF also outlined the impact of the conflict on global energy markets.Between August 2025 and March 2026, oil prices increased by 57.6 per cent, reaching $105.8 per barrel. Disruptions in oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz, a vital worldwide supply route, were the primary cause of the rise.