The Southwest Monsoon-2026 retreated from almost the entire Punjab and most parts of Haryana on September 21, leaving significantly deficient seasonal rainfall in its wake. Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of these states during the next 2-3 days, though the weather department is expecting isolated rains in the region on September 26-27.The line of withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon now passes through Jaisalmer, Nagaur, Sikar, Rohtak, Patiala and Gurdaspur, according to a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on September 21. The monsoon had commenced its withdrawal from western Rajasthan on September 19 and, till yesterday, had retreated only from the Jaisalmer region.This year, the monsoon has been below normal by 39 per cent in Punjab and 23 per cent in Haryana. From June 1 till the morning of September 21, Punjab received 252.2 mm of rain against the long-period average (LPA) of 419.2 mm for this period. Correspondingly, Haryana received 317.5 mm against the LPA of 413.0 mm.In 2025, Punjab received 620.9 mm of rainfall against its average of 439.8 mm, marking a surplus of 41 per cent, while Haryana received 568.4 mm of rain against its average of 426 mm, which was 34 per cent more than normal. Since 2000, the monsoon has been deficient during 13 years in Punjab and 15 years in Haryana, according to IMD data.In Punjab, only two districts received surplus rain, with Pathankot recording 40 per cent above the LPA and Gurdaspur 32 per cent above the LPA. In the remaining areas, the deficiency ranged from 18 per cent to 72 per cent, with Mansa, Kapurthala and Muktsar being the worst affected.With rains being 24 per cent above the LPA, Palwal is the only district in Haryana to remain in surplus during the season, while Gurugram reported rainfall one per cent above the LPA. The deficiency in the remaining districts ranged from one per cent to 60 per cent, with Jind, Sirsa and Kaithal receiving the least rain.The monsoon had reached northwestern India on July 1 through the eastern edge of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, covering the entire region by July 9, a few days behind schedule.Earlier, the IMD had predicted below-normal rains over most parts of the country during the monsoon season this year due to a strong El Niño prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño involves above-normal surface water temperatures, which have an adverse impact on moisture-bearing winds.In its extended-range forecast issued on September 17, the IMD predicted a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions throughout the remaining period of the monsoon season. The monsoon completely withdraws from India around October 15.The IMD said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist throughout the remaining period of the Southwest Monsoon season, though climate forecasts from some international agencies suggest that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during September 2026.The IOD is a climate feature associated with surface temperature differentials between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean and is often referred to as the ‘Indian Niño’. A positive IOD enhances rainfall activity.