The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted that the country will witness a below normal rainfall this monsoon. India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season, the long period average (1971-2020) of the seasonal rainfall is 87 cm.The IMD said there was no cause for concern for farmers as the onset of the monsoon would be forecast by the second week of May.M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, “Farmers need not worry. When the onset of the monsoon will be announced, farmers can prepare for sowing seeds.” “Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is based on the period of 1971-2020 is 87 cm,” the IMD said.The LPA is the average rainfall recorded over a specific region for a given season, calculated over a 50-year period to create a benchmark for forecasting.The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Nino conditions during the south west monsoon. El Nino suppresses monsoon and is one of the reasons behind drought in Asia and Africa.However, IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said positive Indian Ocean Diopole (IOD) conditions were likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season. “At present, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing. However, as per the model a positive IOD will counter the impact of El Nino,” he said.El Nino is often associated with a neutral or positive IOD. If El Nino coincides with a negative IOD, it can significantly weaken the monsoon.As sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of conditions over these ocean basins.